{"id":4050,"date":"2021-03-08T06:30:09","date_gmt":"2021-03-08T11:30:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=4050"},"modified":"2021-03-08T06:30:18","modified_gmt":"2021-03-08T11:30:18","slug":"dont-blame-joe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2021\/03\/08\/dont-blame-joe\/","title":{"rendered":"Don’t Blame Joe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Outrage<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Many of my progressive friends are outraged. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe won the Presidency, we won the House and WE WON THE SENATE WITH GEORGIA!\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0So we should get everything we want, from COVID relief to voting reform, immigration change to climate protection, policing reform to a higher minimum wage. We\u2019ve won it all – and you know damn well the Republicans would do it to us: #%$& bipartisanship!!!\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And in my heart I absolutely agree with them. We need to move our agenda forward – it\u2019s what we voted for.  As the saying  goes, elections have consequences \u2013 we heard that for four long years.  And we won.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yep, we did:  but the margins were so slim.  We actually lost seats in the House. The Popular vote for Biden was decent, but the margins in the critical electoral vote states were only slightly greater than the 2016 Trump margins we complained about for four years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then there\u2019s the Senate – tied fifty votes a piece with Vice President Harris casting the decisive choice.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Narrow Margins<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

So we won, but really only by the narrowest of margins.  And the critical point, the weak link, is the Senate of the United States.  There are really two problems in the Senate.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first is that the Senate has a tradition of the filibuster, unlimited debate.  In the old, \u201cMr. Smith Goes to Washington\u201d days, a Senator would take the floor and talk for as long as they wanted.  A Senator dead-set on stopping a vote on a measure, could simply just keep talking, hours onto days.  And if it were a few Senators, they could go on ad-infinitum, stopping all Senate business.  That\u2019s how the civil rights acts were stopped for so many years in the 1950\u2019s and 1960\u2019s.  There was a way to stop debate, but at that time it took two-thirds of the Senators to vote for \u201ccloture\u201d and limit the talk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Senate has made it easier, on both sides of the filibuster question.  For the talkers, they no longer have to do the actual talking.  They just have to \u201cthreaten\u201d to do it, and the Senate would recognize that they were \u201ctalking\u201d, and hold business.  On the other hand, it no longer required the sixty-seven votes to reach \u201ccloture\u201d, now they could do it with sixty.  And there are now exceptions:  Presidential appointees, and votes on budget items already passed by the House of Representatives called budget reconciliation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what all this means is that forty-one Senators can stop most pieces of legislation in the Senate.  Unless, of course, the Senate decides to end the filibuster rule, or at least modify it.  To do that it only requires a simple majority \u2013 or in this case, fifty votes plus the Vice President. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We Are Democrats<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The second is that the Democrats are Democrats, and that means that the Party represents a broad range of ideology.  It ranges from Bernie Sander\u2019s Democratic Socialism, to Joe Manchin\u2019s \u201cblue dog\u201d conservativism.  And while the \u201cprogressive\u201d Democrats are willing to move forward to end the filibuster, and pass their (our) agenda by fifty votes, the more moderate Democrats, including Manchin, but also Krysten Sinema of Arizona, and perhaps even Joe Biden\u2019s \u201cvoice\u201d in the Senate, Chris Coons, aren\u2019t so sure.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And every vote in the Senate counts \u2013 one break from the \u201cblue wall\u201d and nothing can get done.  That means that every Democrat (including two \u201cindependents\u201d who organize with the Democrats, Sanders and the more moderate Angus King of Maine) has to agree.   President Biden and Majority Leader Schumer have to find the balance between Bernie Sanders and Joe Manchin \u2013 either one can make the Democratic majority just a political organizing ploy, not able to legislate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don’t Blame Joe<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

So my progressive friends, don\u2019t blame Joe Manchin.  He\u2019s a Democrat, and he\u2019s standing with the Democratic Party.  But he\u2019s also a \u201cblue dog\u201d conservative from West Virginia, a state that went overwhelmingly for Donald Trump.  As he said Sunday on ABC\u2019s This Week with George Stephanopoulos, <\/em>he is who he always was, and always will be.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don\u2019t blame Joe \u2013 do something about it.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s not about getting rid of Manchin \u2013 that is, as my mother would say, cutting off your nose to spite your face.\u00a0\u00a0In two years, there will be thirty-four seats up for election.\u00a0\u00a0Realistically, Republicans will maintain a hold on fourteen of those.\u00a0\u00a0Democrats will hold ten more.\u00a0\u00a0That means there are ten competitive seats up for grabs.\u00a0\u00a0Four are held by Democrats, six by Republicans.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The battle for the Senate will be decided in those ten seats.\u00a0\u00a0If Dems win all ten, then they will have a more comfortable fifty-six majority.\u00a0\u00a0They can build a majority – even if one end or the other of the Party disagrees. But if Republicans can defend their seats and win just one of the four Democratic seats, then they regain control. Mitch McConnell becomes Majority Leader again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Get to Work<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In 2018 Democrats made huge strides, taking the House of Representatives and putting Nancy Pelosi back in the Speaker’s chair. In 2020, the expected “Blue Tsunami” turned out to be a trickle. The answer for each: Donald Trump. He wasn’t on the ticket in 2018, and he was in 2020. His presence brought “his” voters to the polls, and they voted down-ticket for other Republicans. He won’t be on the ticket in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Progress is being made.\u00a0\u00a0Democrats will get some of progressive legislation through, though it\u2019s likely to be \u201cwatered down\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0The $15 minimum wage is more likely to by $11, which still beats $7.25.\u00a0\u00a0Go against the conventional wisdom (the President\u2019s Party loses seats in the mid-terms) and bring the energy of anti-Trump 2018 and 2020 to 2022.\u00a0\u00a0And by the way, the House is only Democratic by five seats \u2013 better be ready to fight for that as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Get to work.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Outrage Many of my progressive friends are outraged. \u201cWe won the Presidency, we won the House and WE WON THE SENATE WITH GEORGIA!\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0So we should get everything we want, from COVID relief to voting reform, immigration change to climate protection, policing reform to a higher minimum wage. We\u2019ve won it all – and you know … Continue reading “Don’t Blame Joe”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nDon't Blame Joe : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Democrats won it "all" by the slimmest of margins - and are now trying to govern from the middle. 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