{"id":3908,"date":"2021-02-02T09:05:46","date_gmt":"2021-02-02T14:05:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=3908"},"modified":"2021-02-02T09:05:55","modified_gmt":"2021-02-02T14:05:55","slug":"the-dealmaker","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2021\/02\/02\/the-dealmaker\/","title":{"rendered":"The Dealmaker"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Wisdom<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Joe Biden is the 46th<\/sup> President of the United States.  At seventy-eight, he\u2019s the oldest man ever to serve in the office, edging out Ronald Reagan at the end of his term.  If age begats wisdom, then we have elected the wisest man ever to be President.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But more importantly, Joe Biden brings a lifetime of legislative experience to the White House.\u00a0\u00a0He was first elected to the United States Senate in 1972, actually twenty-nine years of age on election day and meeting the minimum age of thirty, two weeks after.\u00a0\u00a0He served in the US Senate from that time until he took the oath of office for the Vice Presidency in 2009, thirty-six years later.\u00a0\u00a0To say that Joe Biden is a \u201cman of the Senate\u201d is not just a turn of phrase:\u00a0\u00a0he literally grew up in a body where legislative compromise was the \u201cstock in trade\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Biden knows what the Senate was.  And he also knows what our current political climate is like.  As Vice President, Biden experienced first-hand the recalcitrance of Mitch McConnell\u2019s Republican majority, climaxing in holding a Supreme Court seat open for more than a year in order to prevent then-President Obama from filling it.  The \u201cstolen seat\u201d, now held by conservative appointee Neil Gorsuch, is a bone in the throats of Democrats, and a \u201csuccess story\u201d for the now minority Republican Senators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Biden believes in a Senate of compromise, and sees as a major goal of his Presidency bringing the Senate and the nation back to its former self.\u00a0\u00a0But he also knows that his Presidency\u00a0\u00a0will ultimately be judged on how he manages the COVID crisis.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s the reason he was elected; Donald Trump\u2019s ultimate failure, and the true \u201ctest\u201d of Biden\u2019s time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Parliamentary Tricks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

So when the goal of restoring the Senate runs up against the goal of managing COVID, President Biden is in the mix.  He has the power, right now, to pass almost his entire $1.9 trillion COVID relief plan without any Republican votes at all.  Speaker Pelosi in the House is already framing the legislation as a \u201cbudget\u201d item.  The United States House of Representatives operates on a \u201cmajority wins\u201d system, have one more vote than the other side, and you win.  And the Speaker has ten more votes than the Republicans, so she can do as she wishes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the Senate is tied.\u00a0\u00a0There are fifty Republicans, and fifty Democrats.\u00a0\u00a0The Democrats have \u201ccontrol\u201d by the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris.\u00a0\u00a0But for most legislation the Senate is not a majority rule body.\u00a0\u00a0Current rules require sixty votes to end debate on legislation, a process called \u201ccloture\u201d. So even though fifty Democratic Senators and one Vice President will vote for final passage, they can\u2019t get to a final vote without ten Republicans agreeing to end debate.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exception Makes the Rule<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

But there are exceptions.  Federal judicial and cabinet appointments are now under \u201cthe nuclear option\u201d, that is, a simple majority.  No cloture votes are necessary.  And items that come under the heading of \u201cbudget reconciliation\u201d are also under the \u201csimple majority\u201d rule. That\u2019s something that Speaker Pelosi is very much aware of \u2013 thus the $1.9 trillion Biden COVID relief packaged as a \u201cbudget item\u201d rather than a stand-alone legislative proposal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So President Biden can ram through his big COVID relief package within the next month or so.\u00a0\u00a0And he can do it without any Republican cooperation, as long as he can keep all fifty Senate Democrats lined up in his column.\u00a0\u00a0Then Vice President Harris will fulfill her Constitutional obligation as President of the Senate, and cast her tie-breaking vote.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Doing a Deal <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

But the tie-breaking vote might not be the only thing broken.  It might also break any opportunity for Biden to develop some cooperation with the Republicans in the Senate.  That cooperation is the key to bringing American politics away from the polarization that led to a Donald Trump Presidency.  And Biden isn\u2019t the only one invested in changing our political atmosphere.  So are many Republicans who see Trumpism as a danger to their causes, their Party, and their nation.  And of course, they recognize the need for some COVID relief as well.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So President Biden\u2019s attuned sense of Senate deal making is alert.\u00a0\u00a0Ten Republican Senators have proposed an alternative to the Biden COVID plan at $600 billion.\u00a0\u00a0There should be no surprise that the number is ten, the exact number needed to end the debate and bring any plan to a vote.\u00a0 That gives them some power. And they went over to the White House yesterday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s a far piece between $1.9 trillion and $600 billion.  But you have to have some offer to get in the door, or more colloquially, into \u201cthe room where it happens\u201d.  Those ten Republicans don\u2019t expect to come out with a $600 billion deal.  President Biden doesn\u2019t expect to get his $1.9 trillion either.  And there\u2019s more than just passage on the table.  Maybe some of those Republicans don\u2019t vote for the final bill, but are willing to vote for cloture to bring it to the floor for final vote.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

All In<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

They all have more in common than not.\u00a0\u00a0Both Republicans and Democrats recognize the need for COVID relief.\u00a0\u00a0They all want to get legislation into law.\u00a0\u00a0And they all want to proceed in a way that encourages future cooperation and deals, not just more side-taking and finger-pointing.\u00a0\u00a0Neither wants to use anything that\u2019s called a \u201cnuclear option\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Just as in real warfare, it\u2019s beyond difficult to turn back once gone \u201cnuclear\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are Democrats on the other side, from the \u201cProgressive\u201d wing of the Party, that will cringe at any Biden giveaway of COVID relief.\u00a0\u00a0They will pressure him to stick \u201cto the plan\u201d and go nuclear if he needs to.\u00a0\u00a0But it\u2019s difficult to see where they get to negotiate this. \u00a0Are they going to vote against a compromise COVID relief plan?\u00a0\u00a0It doesn\u2019t seem likely, and their counter-pressure to the Republican moderates may not be enough.\u00a0\u00a0Those progressives will end up accepting a Biden compromise, even if they don\u2019t like it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After all, it is the United States Senate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wisdom Joe Biden is the 46th President of the United States.  At seventy-eight, he\u2019s the oldest man ever to serve in the office, edging out Ronald Reagan at the end of his term.  If age begats wisdom, then we have elected the wisest man ever to be President.   But more importantly, Joe Biden brings a lifetime of legislative … Continue reading “The Dealmaker”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Dealmaker : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It's in Biden's nature to compromise. 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