{"id":3782,"date":"2021-01-04T08:24:52","date_gmt":"2021-01-04T13:24:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=3782"},"modified":"2021-01-04T08:25:03","modified_gmt":"2021-01-04T13:25:03","slug":"schism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2021\/01\/04\/schism\/","title":{"rendered":"Schism"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Just the Facts<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I am not a Republican, so I don\u2019t \u201c have a dog\u201d in this fight.\u00a0\u00a0In previous essays, I told Republicans to stay out of internal Democratic fights, so I shouldn\u2019t be \u201ckibitzing\u201d into this one.\u00a0\u00a0But as an historian and an observer of current affairs, the question is fascinating.\u00a0\u00a0Are we seeing the schism of the Republican Party?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fault lines are clear.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0There are Republicans who are in favor of contesting the Presidential Election of 2020 in the Congress, and there are Republicans who are not.\u00a0\u00a0On the \u201cTrump\u201d side, Republicans claim that the 2020 election was \u201crigged\u201d and that the Democrats cheated to win.\u00a0\u00a0They make this claim regardless of the facts \u2013 there is NO evidence that the Democrats really cheated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ron Johnson, Senator from Wisconsin, made the issue clear on\u00a0Meet the Press\u00a0<\/em>yesterday.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cMillions of Americans have questions about the election results, and we need to stop the process and examine what really happened\u201d. His logic is that the questions alone are enough to create the need to stop the election, even though he could not produce any evidence that fraud occurred.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0NBC<\/em>\u2019s Chuck Todd called him out. Todd stated that the millions were only questioning because Johnson and his compatriots told them to question.\u00a0\u00a0Johnson\u2019s response was to deflect and accuse the Mainstream Media, \u201clike you,\u201d of covering up fraud.\u00a0\u00a0But he couldn’t answer the question \u2013 because there is no evidence to back up the charges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Started the Fire<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Missouri Senator Josh Hawley claims that he only is exercising his Constitutional duty to investigate and represent the 72 million Americans who voted for Trump.\u00a0\u00a0First, he overstates the numbers.\u00a0\u00a0Polling shows that as many as 68% of those Trump voters think the election was rigged.\u00a0\u00a0That\u2019s 49 million.\u00a0\u00a0But Senator Hawley, like Johnson, has been a leader in raising questions about the election, again, without evidence.\u00a0\u00a0He is putting out a fire that he helped to start (WAPO<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Currently twelve Republican Senators will object to the results in the Congress on Wednesday.\u00a0\u00a0Nineteen have stated that they accept the election outcome, and twenty have not made it clear where they stand.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0And there will be as many as one hundred and forty Republican House of Representative members who will object to the count.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Process and Procedure<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

But\u00a0to stop the election of Joe Biden as President, it requires a majority of both the House and the Senate.\u00a0\u00a0Democrats control the House, who of course will support Biden.\u00a0\u00a0Republicans control the Senate by the narrowest of margins, 51 to 48, at least through Wednesday.\u00a0\u00a0But unless all of those Republicans, including Sasse, Romney, Murkowski, and Toomey agree to vote against him, Biden will be President.\u00a0\u00a0And those four Senators, and several more, have made it clear they will not vote against Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joe Biden will be inaugurated as President on January 20th<\/sup>.  So what is this all about?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fault Lines<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

For five years, there has been a segment of the Republican Party who stood against Donald Trump.\u00a0\u00a0Former Ohio Governor John Kasich was an early critic, refusing to withdraw from the 2016 Republican primaries.\u00a0\u00a0But there were many others, including John McCain, former Republican Presidential nominee.\u00a0And\u00a0over Trump\u2019s term others have emerged.\u00a0Mitt Romney actually voted to remove Trump from office in the impeachment trial.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A segment of the \u201cpolitical operatives\u201d of the Party broke officially away from Trump.\u00a0\u00a0Former RNC Chairman Michael Steele spoke out against him.\u00a0\u00a0McCain Campaign Manager Steve Schmidt helped organize \u201cThe Lincoln Project\u201d that was instrumental in campaigning against both Trump and his supporters in the 2020 election.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And now the Electoral Vote certification process is forcing others to take a stand.  Former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and seven former Republican Secretaries of Defense, including Vice President Dick Cheney, have come out against interfering with Biden\u2019s election.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Super Power<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Donald Trump dominates the Republican Party through the power of his influence.\u00a0\u00a0It is the \u201cSanford Effect\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0With a single tweet, Donald Trump caused the defeat of South Carolina Congressman Mark Sanford in the Republican primary.\u00a0\u00a0Trump voters dominate Republican primaries, and as South Carolina showed, Trump can alter the results with a \u201cword\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This \u201csuper power\u201d has led former Trump opponents like Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio to become sycophants.\u00a0\u00a0But no one has reversed course harder than Lindsey Graham, who now hugs Trump as tightly as he can.\u00a0\u00a0And the \u201cSanford Effect\u201d has reached even farther, silencing Republicans like Nikki Haley, Rob Portman, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For many of the non-Trump Republicans, this fight is about what the Republican Party stands for.\u00a0\u00a0They are \u201ctraditional\u201d Republicans like Nebraska\u2019s Ben Sasse, worrying about Constitutionalism and deficit spending.\u00a0\u00a0But for others, this crisis is about raw politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2024 Begins<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Presidential election of 2024 is already on.\u00a0\u00a0Here\u2019s the scenario:\u00a0\u00a0Joe Biden will be eighty-two, and may chose not to run for a second term. Vice President Kamala Harris will be his \u201cheir apparent\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Unlike Biden, it will be easy to paint Harris as a \u201cradical liberal\u201d (to use Kelly Loeffler\u2019s phrase).\u00a0\u00a0So potential Republican candidates are maneuvering for position.\u00a0\u00a0Some see themselves as the inheritor of the \u201cTrump core\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Others think the Party will revert back to the Romney-McConnell-Ryan Party of 2012.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what if the GOP becomes both?\u00a0\u00a0The \u201cLincoln Project\u201d Republicans are never coming back to a Trump-like Party.\u00a0\u00a0Will they continue to lead the \u201cschism\u201d into two political forces, Trumpism and old-school Republicanism?\u00a0\u00a0And if that happens, how will that impact the electoral future of America?\u00a0\u00a0Will the division of the Republican Party push the \u201cmoderate Republicans\u201d (think Kasich, or Governors Hogan of Maryland and Baker of Massachusetts) into a physical split with the Trumpers?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democratic Choices <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Democrats are left with a couple of choices as well.\u00a0\u00a0A split Republican Party could encourage a split in the Democratic Party.\u00a0\u00a0The \u201cSanders\u201d progressive wing of the Party could decide to branch out on their own, leaving the more moderate Biden wing behind.\u00a0\u00a0The moderates might be tempted to move even more to the middle, to \u201cpoach\u201d the “middling Republicans”, as they tried to do in the 2020 election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or the Democrats could unite to take advantage of a divided GOP.  But don\u2019t bet on that. After all, we are Democrats, and that would be far too easy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Just the Facts I am not a Republican, so I don\u2019t \u201c have a dog\u201d in this fight.\u00a0\u00a0In previous essays, I told Republicans to stay out of internal Democratic fights, so I shouldn\u2019t be \u201ckibitzing\u201d into this one.\u00a0\u00a0But as an historian and an observer of current affairs, the question is fascinating.\u00a0\u00a0Are we seeing the schism … Continue reading “Schism”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3782","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nSchism : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The current crisis is short term - sixteen days until Biden is President. 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