{"id":3603,"date":"2020-12-01T09:56:47","date_gmt":"2020-12-01T14:56:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=3603"},"modified":"2020-12-01T09:56:54","modified_gmt":"2020-12-01T14:56:54","slug":"the-bush-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2020\/12\/01\/the-bush-model\/","title":{"rendered":"The Bush Model"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Trump\u2019s History<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As a Democrat, the current actions of Donald Trump seem outrageous. The President of the United States is openly accusing the American electoral system. He says it’s rigged and rotted to the core.\u00a0\u00a0At the minimum that undermining of American democracy is irresponsible.\u00a0\u00a0At the worst, is an open challenge, an attempt to overthrow the will of the people:\u00a0\u00a0in short, an attempted coup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But from Trump\u2019s standpoint, it is simply an extension of the same theory that has carried him through his political career.  Much of what Donald Trump has done in the past five years was based on the actions of past Republican Presidents.  From the \u201cLaw and Order\u201d battle cry of Richard Nixon, to the \u201cMake America Great Again\u201d phrase of Ronald Reagan, the Trump campaign has tried to copy both the successes and failures.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Certainly Roger Stone was a key influence towards \u201cNixonian\u201d actions, especially in the 2016 campaign.\u00a0\u00a0Stone, a young \u201cdirty trickster\u201d in the 1972 Nixon campaign, brought that attitude with him as a chief advisor to Trump.\u00a0\u00a0Stone\u2019s \u201cwin at all cost\u201d attitude spread itself throughout the senior Trump staff.\u00a0\u00a0One of his close associates, Paul Manafort, became the Campaign Chairman.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s why Russian contacts really didn\u2019t seem like a big deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now five years later, it shouldn\u2019t be a surprise that the Trump camp is looking to another Republican predecessor on how to win a contested election.\u00a0\u00a0The Trump team is trying to take George W. Bush\u2019s strategy in the Florida recount of 2000, and apply it \u201cwrit large\u201d to all of the critical swing states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Florida, Florida, Florida<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The 2000 Florida count was extremely close, with Bush ultimately declared the winner by 526 votes.\u00a0\u00a0The Presidency hinged on Florida\u2019s electoral vote. The slim difference between Bush and Gore was so small, every single ballot actually mattered.\u00a0\u00a0There were all sorts of real issues:\u00a0\u00a0ballots in Palm Beach where intended Gore votes went to third party candidate Ralph Nader, punch card ballots where the \u201cchads\u201d weren\u2019t completely punched out, and incompetent election officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Florida Democrats controlled the counties of Palm Beach and Miami-Dade, the ultimate Florida elections authority was the state.\u00a0\u00a0And the Florida statewide offices were all controlled by Republicans, led by the Republican Governor Jeb Bush.\u00a0\u00a0As the Presidential candidate\u2019s brother, Jeb \u201crecused\u201d himself from election recount activities.\u00a0\u00a0But the rest of his state government was \u201call in\u201d to make George W Bush the President.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And as a practical matter, they did.  The Florida Secretary of State waited until a moment when the recount favored Bush, then stopped the count.  The issue was thrown into the Courts, where the United States Supreme Court ultimately ruled for \u201cFlorida\u201d and stopped the count.  The Court was split, five Republican appointees to four Democrats.  It was exactly where the Republican state government wanted it to stop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a practical matter \u2013 either candidate could have won Florida, and therefore the Presidency.  It depended on what ballot \u2013 standard was applied to counting the ballots.  Gore wins about as often as Bush (details in this CNN article<\/a>).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fealty to the King<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

So what does Trump want?  He wants what he thinks Bush got in Florida, the complete dedication of Republican state party members to his victory.  It\u2019s why Donald Trump is now attacking Governor Kemp in Georgia, and Republican election officials in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.  Regardless of what the law states, Trump sees their actions as disloyal.  But even more insidiously, he sees them as disrespecting his role as President.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the background of the last six years of Trumpism, is the \u201cdistinction\u201d between Trump and the Republican Party.\u00a0\u00a0Ever since the April 2016 rumors of a Republican revolt at the Cleveland Convention, Trump has been wary of the \u201cmainstream\u201d party.\u00a0\u00a0He\u2019s done everything he can to drag them \u201cinto line\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0From McCain to Flake to Sanford to Tillerson,\u00a0Donald Trump has smacked down any \u201cindependent\u201d action or thought in \u201chis\u201d party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So when Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger \u201crefused\u201d to \u201cchange the vote\u201d, or Michigan State Board of Canvasser member Aaron Van Langevelde voted to approve their results, or Arizona Governor Ducey silences a Presidential call; Trump sees betrayal.  Where is his Jeb Bush, or Katherine Harris, or \u201cBrooks Brothers\u201d riot? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s the reason that other Republican leaders like Senators Marco Rubio or Lindsay Graham or Party Chairman Ronna McDaniel have done everything they can to \u201cuphold\u201d Donald Trump.  Graham may even have crossed the line into criminal election interference with his calls to Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.  But they did it to \u201cprove\u201d their \u201cfealty\u201d to Trump, like a medieval noble to the King:  kneel and kiss the ring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s Lost<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In the short run, the Trump strategy won\u2019t work.\u00a0\u00a0Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20th<\/sup>, and Donald Trump will head back to Mara Lago. And the doubt that Trump is sowing in the election process may directly impact the Georgia Senate runoffs.\u00a0\u00a0Republicans in Georgia listening to \u201ctheir\u201d President may well choose not to participate in the \u201crigged\u201d system he \u201cexposed\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0So the Democrats might win, and gain control of the US Senate as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0But in the longer term, there may be devastating effects.\u00a0\u00a0Trump continues his ironfisted control of his ninety percent of the Republican electorate.\u00a0\u00a0A Trump \u201ctweet\u201d can still make or break a Republican candidate \u2013 and that\u2019s not likely to change for the next few years.\u00a0\u00a0The Trump strategy will be to insinuate his loyalists into every level of the Party, from Governors to members of the Board of Canvassers.\u00a0\u00a0Whether Trump himself runs in 2024 won\u2019t be as important as being a \u201cTrumpist\u201d with “the Donald\u2019s” support.\u00a0\u00a0And this time, the election system might not hold up against the cries of \u201cfoul play\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Votes may well be denied \u2013 and Democracy will begin to die.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump\u2019s History As a Democrat, the current actions of Donald Trump seem outrageous. The President of the United States is openly accusing the American electoral system. He says it’s rigged and rotted to the core.\u00a0\u00a0At the minimum that undermining of American democracy is irresponsible.\u00a0\u00a0At the worst, is an open challenge, an attempt to overthrow the … Continue reading “The Bush Model”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Bush Model : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Trump mimics his prior Presidents. 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