{"id":3518,"date":"2020-11-16T09:32:51","date_gmt":"2020-11-16T14:32:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=3518"},"modified":"2020-11-16T09:33:01","modified_gmt":"2020-11-16T14:33:01","slug":"winter-of-covid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2020\/11\/16\/winter-of-covid\/","title":{"rendered":"Winter of COVID"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Math<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A \u201cFacebook\u201d friend of mine complained of COVID restrictions last night.  She posted: \u201cOnly .0001% deaths\u2026and we are getting ready to shut down again.  This is more than ridiculous!!!\u201d  Here in Ohio this has been a recurring theme since last March.  We had our fair share of protestors on the State House lawn, demanding their \u201cfreedom\u201d not to wear masks.   And small business owners, reasonably afraid of losing their livelihoods, have fought against restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So let\u2019s start with where we are in Ohio right now. First of all, the \u201c.0001%\u201d number is bogus.  How do you even get there?  Take the entire population of the state, and divide it into the number of deaths.  Mathematically, by the way \u2013 that\u2019s \u201c.01%\u201d.  But besides eighth grade math mistakes, what\u2019s wrong?  As a \u201csnapshot\u201d, most of the population hasn\u2019t had COVID  – yet.  So since they haven\u2019t been infected, they certainly aren\u2019t dying from it.  But we know that COVID infection is spreading at an alarming rate.  Eventually most of the population may be exposed, and the \u201c.01%\u201d fatality rate will climb.  So here is a snapshot of Ohio numbers that make more sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ohio Numbers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

There are 11 million people in the state.  Almost 300,000 Ohioans have been diagnosed with COVID. That\u2019s about 3%, and it\u2019s growing quickly.  Also there are likely many more folks that had COVID, but were asymptomatic and never diagnosed.  Here\u2019s the critical number though:  out of those diagnosed, 22,265 had to be hospitalized.  That\u2019s 7%.  So if you are diagnosed with COVID, right now there\u2019s a 7% chance of ending up in a hospital for treatment here in Ohio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There have been 5722 deaths from COVID here in Ohio.  Most of those who died were hospitalized \u2013 which means that there\u2019s a 25% chance that if you need to be hospitalized for COVID, you might not make it.  That\u2019s one in four.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And here\u2019s the final, scary numbers.  There were 40,000 new cases of COVID diagnosed in Ohio \u2013 last week!  We are averaging 199 new hospitalized patients each day.  The rate of infection, how many people are diagnosed a week, is increasing quickly.  Sure, part of that number is that from testing more people \u2013 and we ought to be testing a whole lot more people so we have a \u201creal\u201d percentage of the infection in our population (Ohio Coronavirus.org<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Waiting List<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

But the number that should worry Ohioans is the number of folks in the hospital.  We can argue about \u201crates\u201d of infection and testing, but there is no denying the fact that our hospitals are being crushed by COVID.  The Cleveland Clinic postponed elective surgeries for the foreseeable future.  Emergency departments in the Columbus metro area were so slammed last Friday, that one Level I Trauma Center (Level I is the most able to handle major cases) redirected ambulances away from their unit, and another Level II Center was unable to accept any new patients at all.  Think of that for a moment \u2013 ambulances are redirected to Emergency Departments farther away \u2013 and if you drive yourself to the hospital \u2013 they don\u2019t let you in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So let\u2019s not fool ourselves with \u201cbad\u201d math.  We were warned back in March:  if we don\u2019t control the rate of infection, we will lose control of our hospitals.  We will not be able to treat both COVID patients, and the folks with all of the other problems that put them in the hospital in the first place.  People will die, who didn\u2019t have to die.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Who Lives<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

We dodged that bullet in March by shutting down, wearing masks, and social distancing.  But that was a long, long time ago.  Now shutting down, masks, and social distancing are \u201cpolitical\u201d issues rather than medical ones.  We even had a Supreme Court Justice make \u201cex parte\u201d statements  (outside of a court case) about the Constitutionality of restrictions.  He\u2019s worried that folks can\u2019t practice their religion by going to church.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We should be worried about everyone in church getting COVID.  We should be worried about the elderly, often regular churchgoers, getting COVID and dying. Not because they \u201chad\u201d to die, and not because it was \u201ctheir time\u201d.  Dying because some church leaders willfully ignored science and brought them together.  Benjamin Franklin famously quoted, \u201cGod helps those who help themselves\u201d.   Justice Alito and Ohioans need to help themselves and protect folks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is \u201clight at the end of the tunnel\u201d.  Vaccines are literally around the corner.  Sometime between now and June, it\u2019s likely that most of the population could be vaccinated, and the COVID pandemic controlled (not over).  We can then return to many of the things that we call \u201cregular life\u201d.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But in the meantime \u2013 we decide how many will die.  If we control the disease:  wearing masks, social distance, and, if necessary, shutdown for a few weeks to regain control, we can save many lives.  If we don\u2019t, then we betray those who are vulnerable and kill them.  It\u2019s not political \u2013 it\u2019s simple math and science.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Math A \u201cFacebook\u201d friend of mine complained of COVID restrictions last night.  She posted: \u201cOnly .0001% deaths\u2026and we are getting ready to shut down again.  This is more than ridiculous!!!\u201d  Here in Ohio this has been a recurring theme since last March.  We had our fair share of protestors on the State House lawn, demanding their \u201cfreedom\u201d not to … Continue reading “Winter of COVID”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3518","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nWinter of COVID : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The winter of COVID. 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