{"id":3447,"date":"2020-11-01T04:04:00","date_gmt":"2020-11-01T09:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=3447"},"modified":"2020-11-01T04:05:28","modified_gmt":"2020-11-01T09:05:28","slug":"remain-calm-then-break-glass","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2020\/11\/01\/remain-calm-then-break-glass\/","title":{"rendered":"Remain Calm, Then Break Glass"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Election Day<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

So, after one thousand, four hundred, sixty-one days, we have finally reached another Presidential Election Day. I wasn\u2019t at all sure that we\u2019d make it through \u201cTHE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION\u201d (Hamilton reference – \u201cthe Adams Administration\u201d)<\/em>. But here we are. Hard to imagine: we are in the middle of a global pandemic, snatching children from parents on the border, and young Black men are at higher risk of dying from homicide than any other cause (CDC<\/a>). Joe Biden, after trying for thirty years, is finally getting his shot at the Presidency and Donald Trump is campaigning for a second term, and a second chance. A decade ago, no one would have believed it as a movie script.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Margin of Error<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a long essay, Likely Voters<\/a><\/em>, on polling and the Presidential election. I warned that ignoring the \u201cmargin of error\u201d could lead to \u201cshock and awe\u201d on election night.  The most recent example is from Quinnipiac, a very reputable poll with a \u201cB+\u201d rating from \u201cFive-Thirty Eight<\/a>\u201d<\/em>. Their most recent Ohio poll showed Joe Biden with 48% of the vote to Trump\u2019s 43%.  Biden in the lead by 5% in Ohio seems more than extraordinary.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But in the fine print, Quinnipiac notes there is a 2.9%  +\/- margin of error in the poll.  So Biden could be as high as 50.9%, or as low as 45.1%.  Trump could be as high as 45.9%, even ahead of Biden, or as low as 40.1%. It definitely shows Ohio to be much closer than the \u201cgut check – signs on the highway\u201d Trump feeling you get.  And while I’d rather be Biden in the poll, don\u2019t lose track of the margin of error.  We did in 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I also wrote an essay, Electoral Math<\/a>, <\/em>laying out the path to the Electoral votes that both Trump and Biden need to reach 270, the number to win the Presidency.  Assuming Biden wins all the states Hillary Clinton won, he starts with 233 Electoral Votes.  Trump has more states but with fewer votes, and he starts with 125.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Florida-Florida-Florida<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Since Mr. Trump has the harder road to 270, there are key states that will tell us early what may happen.  Florida is already counting the early vote, and those numbers will be available soon after the polls close on Tuesday.  Since in many parts of Florida, 80% or more of the total is early vote, we will have a good idea of what\u2019s going on there \u2013 early.  If we see that Biden is running ahead of Clinton\u2019s 2016 totals, and that Trump is \u201cunder-performing\u201d his 2016 effort, then it may well be Biden\u2019s day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what are the \u201cclues\u201d to look for?  President Trump is polling well with the Cuban\/American community, better than he did in 2016.  If that holds up, that might win the state.  On the other hand, Biden seems to be doing much better than Clinton did with older Americans.  If that stays true, particularly on Florida\u2019s Gulf Coast, than it will impact more than just one state.  Many of those \u201csnow-bird\u201d Floridians came from the Midwest \u2013 Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  If they\u2019re going for Biden, so might their \u201cbrethren\u201d left in the cold north.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Biden is at Clinton levels, then we know that Florida is going to be extremely close.  That doesn\u2019t mean that Biden is going to lose, but it does mean that a \u201cBiden Blue Wave\u201d is probably not in the cards.  A close election in Florida probably portends a close election in the Midwest, and therefore the nation.  By the way, if Florida does go to Biden \u2013 it\u2019s over.  Get a nightcap, in celebration or sadness depending on your view, and go to bed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Early Tells<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ohio will also be a relatively early \u201ccall\u201d on election night.  Again, if Biden is running well ahead of the Clinton number of 2016, even if he doesn\u2019t win the state, it means that the rest of the Midwest is likely to \u201creturn to Blue\u201d.  And if Biden wins Ohio (or Florida), it\u2019s a solid indication that the election is over, and Biden is the next President.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Georgia may also be an early finisher.  Democrats have lusted after Georgia\u2019s electoral votes for years, but it\u2019s been since Bill Clinton in 1992 that the Peach State went Blue.  If Atlanta and the suburbs can overcome the rural parts of the state, it will be because of Stacey Abrams and her amazing efforts to counter Republican voter suppression.  And, if Georgia goes for Biden, it\u2019s time for that nightcap. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

After Florida, Ohio and Georgia, the next results to watch carefully are from Texas.  Something\u2019s changed in the Lone Star State.  More people have voted already, than voted in the entire 2016 election.  What that means is still unclear, but theoretically there is a large portion of Democrats voting who didn\u2019t in 2016. If that\u2019s true, it could be the culmination of the work Beto O\u2019Rourke started in his Senate campaign two years ago. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Texas turning \u201cBlue\u201d would be a total game changer.  The last time Texas did, I was twenty and working for the 1976 Carter campaign \u2013 so it\u2019s been a little while.  Texas has the second biggest Electoral Vote in the nation, with 38.  Simple math \u2013 Biden wins the 233 expected, then Texas at 38, and he is the next President.  Have a nightcap \u2013 good or bad \u2013 and go to bed \u2013 it\u2019s over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mail-In Votes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

For the past four years we have been replaying the 2016 election. Clinton lost the \u201cBlue Wall\u201d states \u2013 Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Out of the thirteen million votes cast in those three, Trump won by a total of 77744 votes. That\u2019s 0.6%. The polling indicates that Wisconsin and Michigan should be solid Biden states, though still statistically within the margins of error. And while Biden holds a steady lead in Pennsylvania too, the race there seems to be tightening. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Florida, Texas, and Ohio all go for Trump then Biden is back to the 2016 \u201cBlue Wall\u201d defense.  And that\u2019s when everything is going to get sticky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All three states are relatively new to mail-in voting.  And in all three, the Republican Party has filed lawsuits in court against counting mail-in ballots that arrive late.  Meanwhile, in Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, the US Postal Service is failing to deliver on time almost half the time.  So if you are looking for the nightmare, a 2000 Bush\/Gore Florida election scenario \u2013 look no farther than the Federal District Courts in those three states.  If the outcome comes down to the mail-in ballots, expect to see a \u201cfull court\u201d (hah!) press by the Trump campaign to throw them out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

So what are my expectations for Tuesday night?  As my family will tell you, I am an optimist when it comes to Democratic Presidential candidates.  I thought that Al Gore and Hillary Clinton would both be President.  And while they both did win the popular vote, we still had to live through the Bush and Trump Presidencies.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I feel that there is a sea change occurring in American politics.  So to crawl out on a limb (which my Trumpian friends will surely take pleasure sawing off) I think we are going to see a Blue \u201cTsunami\u201d.  Biden is going to win, big.  Perhaps Florida big, perhaps even Georgia, Arizona and Ohio big.  I\u2019m struggling with Texas big, but maybe.  But I do think that Biden will drag the US Senate with him, getting Senate seats in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Georgia (maybe two) and North Carolina.  I think the Dems will hold the Michigan seat, though I don\u2019t see how to hang onto Doug Jones in Alabama. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And don\u2019t forget that there\u2019s a fight for the Senate in Iowa, and Montana, and even Alaska as well. Oh and wouldn\u2019t it be sweet if Harrison beat Graham in South Carolina. So a Senate that is now 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats could end up 57 Dems to 43 Republicans. Sorry Mitch, game over. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019re going to predict, why not go big? So vote if you haven\u2019t, and get prepared for Tuesday night, and Wednesday morning, if you have. It\u2019s almost \u201cgame day\u201d, and you might as well enjoy the suspense. It\u2019s popcorn, beer, antacids, and a final nightcap. That might end up being a \u201cBloody Mary\u201d \u2013 sometime after dawn on Wednesday morning.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Election Day So, after one thousand, four hundred, sixty-one days, we have finally reached another Presidential Election Day. I wasn\u2019t at all sure that we\u2019d make it through \u201cTHE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION\u201d (Hamilton reference – \u201cthe Adams Administration\u201d). But here we are. Hard to imagine: we are in the middle of a global pandemic, snatching children … Continue reading “Remain Calm, Then Break Glass”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nRemain Calm, Then Break Glass : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"After four years, we finally have made it to election day once again. 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