{"id":3388,"date":"2020-10-23T06:46:34","date_gmt":"2020-10-23T10:46:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=3388"},"modified":"2020-10-23T06:46:55","modified_gmt":"2020-10-23T10:46:55","slug":"likely-voters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2020\/10\/23\/likely-voters\/","title":{"rendered":"Likely Voters"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>I watched the debate last night.  It looked like a Presidential debate &#8211; but the volume of the President&#8217;s falsehoods left me frustrated and angered.  From a political standpoint Trump&#8217;s &#8220;new&#8221; behavior was better.  But Joe Biden did better as well, able to actually lay out his ideas for America.  Scorecard:  Biden held his own, and Trump just spoke to the base &#8211; Biden wins.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Voodoo<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As you might imagine, I become an \u201celection geek\u201d during Presidential contests.&nbsp;&nbsp;That\u2019s been true since Mom pinned a Kennedy button on my sweater in 1960.&nbsp;&nbsp;I followed campaigns from \u201cAll the Way with LBJ\u201d to my boss Jimmy Carter\u2019s \u201cWhy Not the Best\u201d, to Reagan\u2019s \u201cLet\u2019s Make America Great Again\u201d, to John Kerry\u2019s \u201cLet America be America\u201d (or<em>&nbsp;Bartlet be Bartlet<\/em>) to Obama\u2019s \u201cYes We Can\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So I spend a lot of time with polls.&nbsp;&nbsp;Getting a read on what American voters intend to do is important.&nbsp;&nbsp;But there\u2019s always a caveat, a statement of caution:&nbsp;&nbsp;what about 2016?&nbsp;&nbsp;The pollsters seemed to be so wrong then?&nbsp;&nbsp;How can we trust their numbers now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well there are a couple of answers to that concern.&nbsp;&nbsp;First, polling is  science not voodoo.   Pollsters take the opinion of a limited number of people, and project that into a conclusion on what everyone is thinking.&nbsp;&nbsp;So how that limited number, the sample, is selected, will control the accuracy of the data that ultimately comes out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Historic Mistake<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"269\" height=\"187\" data-attachment-id=\"3389\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2020\/10\/23\/likely-voters\/unknown-10\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dahlman.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Unknown.jpeg?fit=269%2C187&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"269,187\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-title=\"Unknown\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dahlman.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Unknown.jpeg?fit=269%2C187&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dahlman.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Unknown.jpeg?resize=269%2C187&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3389\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There\u2019s a famous picture of a smiling Harry Truman holding up the front page of the Chicago Tribune the day after the 1948 election.&nbsp;&nbsp;The headline reads \u201cDewey Defeats Truman\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;Tom Dewey, the Governor of New York, was the Republican candidate for President, and as is apparent from Truman\u2019s beaming smile, Dewey did not win.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So what happened?&nbsp;&nbsp;The Tribune did a last minute telephone poll that showed an overwhelming move by voters to the Dewey camp.&nbsp;&nbsp;They were so confident in the result that they set the headline for Wednesday morning, and went to bed.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key to the poll\u2019s failure was in the sample.&nbsp;&nbsp;It was 1948, and not every American household had their own phone.&nbsp;&nbsp;In fact, even when I moved to Pataskala thirty years later, there were still \u201cparty lines\u201d where several households shared a phone line (I know, it sounds like Mayberry in the&nbsp;<em>Andy Griffith Show<\/em>).&nbsp;&nbsp;So the sample that the Tribune spoke to was slanted towards people who could afford to own their personal phone line.&nbsp;&nbsp;And that\u2019s exactly the kind of folks that voted Republican.&nbsp;&nbsp;It shouldn\u2019t be a surprise that they were voting for Dewey.&nbsp;&nbsp;But they weren\u2019t a representative sample.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sampling is critical.&nbsp;&nbsp;And some of the sampling in 2016 was based on the Obama 2012 and 2008 election turnout.&nbsp;&nbsp;Not surprisingly, Hillary Clinton didn&#8217;t generate the same kind of excitement as the first Black President did, and didn\u2019t get the same kind of turnout, particularly in minority communities.&nbsp;&nbsp;It wasn\u2019t that she didn\u2019t win those communities; she did, overwhelmingly.&nbsp;&nbsp;But the numbers of people didn\u2019t come to the polls.&nbsp;&nbsp;Think about Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia: the lower turnout there changed the outcome of those state elections, and who ultimately became President.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Snapshot<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Polls in 2016, like the current polling for Biden today, showed a strong Clinton lead through early October.&nbsp;&nbsp;But that month in 2016 was tumultuous to say the least.&nbsp;&nbsp;There was the&nbsp;<em>Access Hollywood<\/em>&nbsp;video, followed immediately by the Podesta email dump by Wikileaks, then the Comey letter reopening the Clinton email investigation, followed by Comey closing the investigation again.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While we were distracted, the polls significantly narrowed.&nbsp;&nbsp;And that brings us to the second point.&nbsp;&nbsp;Polls are a snapshot of how people feel at that moment.&nbsp;&nbsp;They don\u2019t signify what they believed yesterday, or what they are likely to do tomorrow.&nbsp;&nbsp;In the unstable political environment of October 2016, things changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Democrats remember a summer and fall when Hillary had a seemingly insurmountable lead.&nbsp;&nbsp;Even the Trump campaign seemed resigned to defeat.&nbsp;&nbsp;But all of the October craziness tightened the race.&nbsp;&nbsp;What would have been an electoral landslide for Clinton in the first week of October (that snapshot) dwindled to a marginal lead in November.&nbsp;&nbsp;Democrats then, and now, remembered the polling of a month or even week before.&nbsp;&nbsp;But the snapshot changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Margins<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Marginal is a significant word in polling.&nbsp;&nbsp;Pollsters take maybe 1000 responses, and extrapolate the results over millions of voters.&nbsp;&nbsp;There is always some room for mistakes, called the \u201cmargin of error\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;When we saw Clinton with 46% to 43% for Trump with a margin of error of 3.5%, it meant that Clinton wasn\u2019t really ahead of Trump.&nbsp;&nbsp;Within that margin Trump could be ahead of Clinton by \u00bd a percent or more.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And that\u2019s where we were when the actual snapshot was taken and we held the election.&nbsp;&nbsp;Almost all of the polls except for the \u201cnational polls\u201d were inside the margin.&nbsp;&nbsp;And Trump won by a razor thin margin in the states he had to take:&nbsp;&nbsp;Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.&nbsp;&nbsp;By the way, the \u201cnational polls\u201d were right \u2013 Hillary won the national popular vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sample<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So who gets polled is critical to the accuracy of the data.&nbsp;&nbsp;The Rasmussen poll, for example, has been slanted towards Trump for the past five years.&nbsp;&nbsp;It\u2019s not because Rasmussen is a \u201cTrumpster\u201d (though he is), it\u2019s that the way he selects the sample favors Trump.&nbsp;&nbsp;So when you see Rasmussen polls favoring Biden (Arizona \u2013 Biden 48%, Trump 46% 3.5% margin of error) then you know that Biden is doing well under the \u201cworst\u201d polling conditions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Generally polls look at three major variables:&nbsp;&nbsp;likely voters, registered voters, and adults of voting age.&nbsp;&nbsp;\u201cAdults of voting age\u201d is the least important.&nbsp;&nbsp;Only twenty-one states have \u201csame day\u201d voter registration, where you can register and vote on the same day.&nbsp;&nbsp;The rest close registration early, so in those states, measuring unregistered adults is meaningless.&nbsp;&nbsp;And even in the \u201csame day\u201d states, folks who haven\u2019t already registered are less likely to actually vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Registered voters seems like a \u201cgood\u201d sample.\u00a0\u00a079% of adults of voting age are registered to vote.\u00a0\u00a0But in the 2016 election only 58% of eligible adults actually voted.\u00a0\u00a0That means that 20% of voters who were registered still didn\u2019t vote.\u00a0\u00a0Even though a person is registered to vote, there still a one in five chance that they won\u2019t.\u00a0\u00a0And that\u2019s the \u201cturnout\u201d question that Democrats and Republicans debate.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cIF\u201d Hillary had a better turnout, she would have won.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cIF\u201d Biden can motivate his \u201cbase\u201d he will win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And finally there\u2019s the \u201clikely voter\u201d, the registered voter who consistently votes in election.&nbsp;&nbsp;And that\u2019s the sample that most pollsters like to survey.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Political Geeks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Want to join in the \u201cgeekdom\u201d of poll watching?&nbsp;&nbsp;Nate Silver was one of the few who predicted a Trump victory in the last few weeks of 2016.&nbsp;&nbsp;His website,&nbsp;<em><a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/\">Five-Thirty Eight<\/a><\/em>, not only lists the latest polls, but rates their quality. \u201cA\u201d and \u201cB\u201d polls are regarded as high quality, \u201cC\u201d and \u201cD\u201d polls not so much.&nbsp;&nbsp;If you want to quote polling, look for those \u201chigh quality\u201d polls (sounds like Bobby Boucher from&nbsp;<em>The Water Boy)<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And if you want more of a cross section of polling, check out&nbsp;<em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/\">Real Clear Politics<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/em>While the editorial content slants conservative, their polling averages are right on.&nbsp;&nbsp;Like most general elections, it\u2019s likely the polls will narrow as Election Day approaches.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The \u201cundecided\u201d will make their choice, and this year, fully a third of the US vote will be cast before we even get to November 3<sup>rd<\/sup>.&nbsp;&nbsp;Their votes, like mine, are in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As we used to say after the last hard track workout, \u201cthe hay is in the barn\u201d for early voters.&nbsp;&nbsp;And for the rest of you:&nbsp;&nbsp;get \u201cyour hay in the barn\u201d (go and vote) then watch the polls.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Then, in the days and probably weeks after November 3rd, we can sweat out the actual count.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I watched the debate last night. It looked like a Presidential debate &#8211; but the volume of the President&#8217;s falsehoods left me frustrated and angered. From a political standpoint Trump&#8217;s &#8220;new&#8221; behavior was better. But Joe Biden did better as well, able to actually lay out his ideas for America. Scorecard: Biden held his own, &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2020\/10\/23\/likely-voters\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Likely Voters&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Likely Voters : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Polls take a snapshot of voters&#039; thoughts at the time of the poll. 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