{"id":3367,"date":"2020-10-19T17:13:20","date_gmt":"2020-10-19T21:13:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=3367"},"modified":"2020-10-20T07:18:04","modified_gmt":"2020-10-20T11:18:04","slug":"electoral-math","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2020\/10\/19\/electoral-math\/","title":{"rendered":"Electoral Math"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

And the Winner Is<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Democrat Hillary Clinton won the Presidential Election of 2016 with 48.2% of the vote.\u00a0\u00a0Donald Trump came in second almost three million votes behind Clinton, with 46.1% of the vote.\u00a0\u00a0Just like Algebra 2 class back in high school, at least for me, the math of United States Presidential elections sometimes doesn\u2019t make sense.\u00a0\u00a0Why:\u00a0\u00a0because as we all are very much aware, Hillary Clinton has not been the President of the United States for the past three and a half years.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Donald Trump did not win the popular vote, but he was able to amass a majority of the Electoral vote, winning 304 Electoral votes to Clinton\u2019s 227. (For those government geeks like me, who recognize that those numbers are seven short of the 538 total Electoral votes, seven electors were \u201cfaithless\u201d and didn\u2019t vote for either one). <\/em> Without starting an \u201cElectoral College\u201d debate, this is how we elect the President now. So like it or not, this isn\u2019t a national election. The Presidential Election of 2020 is actually fifty-one separate state elections for the number of Electors that state is allotted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Electoral College<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Each state is allocated one Elector (vote) for each Member of the House of Representatives of the state, and one for each Senator (two for each state).\u00a0\u00a0The minimum a state could have would be three electoral votes (that is what the District of Columbia is also given).\u00a0\u00a0The largest is fifty-five, California.\u00a0\u00a0It all totals to 538 Electoral votes, so a tie would be 269. It takes 270 wins the Presidency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Donald Trump didn\u2019t need to win the popular vote.  He needed to win 270 Electoral Votes, and he did that and more.  To win the Presidency then, Joe Biden needs to win 270 or more Electoral votes, not just more popular votes.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the way, that\u2019s why you don\u2019t see Biden campaigning in California or New York.  Both of those states are going to go to the Democrat, no matter what. \u201cRunning up\u201d the vote in a state does the Presidential candidate no direct good, though it might help elect other state candidates there.  The Presidential candidate just has to win the popular vote by the slimmest margin, to get \u201call\u201d the Electoral votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And since it\u2019s like Algebra, there are two exceptions.  Maine and Nebraska allow their Congressional Districts to individually choose electors.  So if the Omaha Congressional District votes for Biden, he will get that one electoral vote.  The rest of Nebraska is likely to be overwhelmingly for Trump, so he would win the other two Congressional Districts, and by winning the entire state count, the two \u201cSenate\u201d electors.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So \u201cendeth\u201d the Electoral College 101 lesson.  Thanks for coming to class.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sure Things<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As noted above, there are some states that are going to go \u201cRed\u201d or \u201cBlue\u201d for sure.  Those are the states where you won\u2019t see a lot of Presidential TV commercials, and the candidates aren\u2019t dropping in for visits and speeches.  They are \u201cin the bag\u201d.  President Trump has a total of twenty states with 125 Electoral votes locked in, Joe Biden twenty states and the District of Columbia, totaling 232.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So all Biden has to do is win thirty-eight more Electoral votes and he\u2019s the next President.\u00a0\u00a0That\u2019s exactly what Hillary Clinton needed to do as well.\u00a0\u00a0She didn’t win a single one beyond the “locked in” states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

181 Electoral votes are up for grabs, along with the Presidency of the United States and, not to get overly dramatic, the fate of the American experiment and the free world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Degrees of Blueness<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

If you were alive on November 8th<\/sup>\u00a0of 2016, you remember the term \u201cthe Blue Wall\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0This was the \u201cimpregnable\u201d Democratic bastion of Pennsylvania and the Northern Tier:\u00a0\u00a0Michigan and Wisconsin.\u00a0\u00a0That\u2019s a total of forty-six votes, more than enough to win.\u00a0\u00a0And Democrats watched as each of those states, one by one, went to Donald Trump.\u00a0\u00a0Each was by the narrowest margin, a total of 77744 votes out of over 13 million cast.\u00a0\u00a0(Want to delve into that more \u2013 here\u2019s a Trump World post from March of 2017 about the count \u2013\u00a077744<\/a>).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joe Biden is in the same position.  And he\u2019s also at the same point in polling that Clinton was about three weeks out from the election.  She had a commanding lead in the polls in each of those states, though she never broke fifty percent, and nationally as well.  So what happened?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bringing Clinton Down<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Three factors took Hillary Clinton down.\u00a0\u00a0The first was over twenty years of calling both of the Clinton\u2019s criminals even before Bill was impeached is 1998.\u00a0\u00a0Hillary had the highest \u201cunfavorable\u201d ratings of any Presidential candidate, ever.\u00a0\u00a0Six Benghazi investigations by a Republican House of Representatives just made it worse.\u00a0\u00a0So she was already \u201csoftened up\u201d. Joe Biden is running ten points ahead of Hillary’s “unfavorables” were of 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second factor was the Comey letter to Congress, re-opening the Clinton email investigation.\u00a0\u00a0Whether you like Director Comey or not, his action created a whole new view of Hillary as a criminal, and also managed to tie her to the laptop of her senior aide\u2019s husband, \u201cserial sexter\u201d Anthony Weiner.\u00a0\u00a0It just made things a whole lot worse, and the undecided almost unanimously turned to Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The third factor was the Clinton campaign didn\u2019t recognize the shift caused by the Comey Letter, and failed to commit to defending in the \u201cBlue Wall\u201d states.  Trump campaigned there, and it made a difference. So Clinton lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

(<\/em>All polling from Real Clear Politics<\/a> averages as of 10\/18\/20<\/em>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today Joe Biden is leading the polling in each of the \u201cblue wall\u201d states by more than six points over Trump.\u00a0\u00a0And in all three he is close to fifty-percent, meaning that near half the voters are Biden voters.\u00a0\u00a0The \u201cundecided\u201d would have to completely go for Trump to change the outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Biden also is running well in \u201csecond tier\u201d states, states that weren\u2019t really in play in 2016.  In North Carolina, Iowa and Arizona, Biden is carrying a two percent lead.  That\u2019s close to the \u201cmargin of error\u201d, but has been trending Biden all year.  All three of those states were Trump states in 2016.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then, for those with long political memories, there\u2019s Florida, Florida, Florida.  Biden is leading by 4% in Florida.  Florida has 29 Electoral votes.  If Florida goes to Biden, it\u2019s game over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And, as they say on the TV ad \u2013 there\u2019s more.\u00a0\u00a0Hillary Clinton was never competitive in Georgia, or Ohio or Texas.\u00a0\u00a0But Biden is polling well in those states, up by a percent in Georgia, tied in Ohio, and down by four percent in Texas.\u00a0\u00a0If those states are competitive, that tells a whole different story than the 2016 election.\u00a0\u00a0And if Biden wins Ohio, a state that will likely have an unofficial final vote count on election night, it would be another \u201cgame over\u201d moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So if we give all the ties and \u201cclose calls\u201d to Trump, currently Biden would earn 346 Electoral Votes to Trump\u2019s 192.\u00a0\u00a0Again, it\u2019s \u201cgame over\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two Weeks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

But, there\u2019s two weeks to go, and as we learned in 2016, a lot can happen.  National polls show Biden at 51% and Trump at 42%.  That poll will tighten as we get closer to Election Day, though it\u2019s likely a third of the nation will have voted before November 3rd<\/sup>.  Anything can happen \u2013 and the Trump campaign has already tried to create three \u201cOctober Surprises\u201d (the Durham investigation, the Unmasking investigation, and the Hunter Biden computer dis-information nonsense).  None have worked so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democrats have to show up because Trump Republicans absolutely will.  There will be arguments about voter suppression, mail-in ballot counts, and who knows what else.  The only way to assure a \u201cclear\u201d victory is to gain a definitive one.  And it’s not just possible, it can really happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Get to work \u2013 and get to the polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are the numbers:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

And the Winner Is Democrat Hillary Clinton won the Presidential Election of 2016 with 48.2% of the vote.\u00a0\u00a0Donald Trump came in second almost three million votes behind Clinton, with 46.1% of the vote.\u00a0\u00a0Just like Algebra 2 class back in high school, at least for me, the math of United States Presidential elections sometimes doesn\u2019t make … Continue reading “Electoral Math”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nElectoral Math : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There's lots of talk about Electoral Votes and the election. 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After forty years of teaching and coaching track and cross country, I've finally retired!!! I've also spent a lot of time in politics, working campaigns from local school elections to Presidential campaigns.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.dahlman.online","https:\/\/m.facebook.com\/Dahlmanonline-610417212502642\/","https:\/\/x.com\/martydahlman"]}]}},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3367","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3367"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3367\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3375,"href":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3367\/revisions\/3375"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3367"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3367"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3367"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}