I grew up in the \u201cheyday\u201d of vaccines.\u00a0\u00a0I have a smallpox scar on my arm.\u00a0\u00a0Every American was vaccinated for smallpox until the early 1970\u2019s.\u00a0\u00a0By then the disease was so rare that unless you were travelling somewhere in the world where it was still prevalent, you didn\u2019t get it.\u00a0\u00a0Today, there is no \u201cnatural\u201d smallpox in the world.\u00a0\u00a0It requires human transmission, and so many people were vaccinated, there was no one left to transmit it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There’s still some around, in the biological warfare centers, and at the Centers for Disease Control.\u00a0\u00a0But the disease that ravaged the Revolutionary Army, the frontier, and scarred and killed so many of our forefathers, is gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And I was a \u201ctest dummy\u201d for the oral polio vaccine, developed by Albert Sabin.\u00a0\u00a0He lived just down the street, right across from Mom\u2019s good friend Maggie Miller.\u00a0\u00a0The first major US test of his oral vaccine was in the Cincinnati Public Schools. I remember stories of lining up at Sabin\u2019s back door to get it \u2013 I was four at the time though, so that memory might not be exactly true.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, like most kids of my time, I got the measles, and scarlet fever, and mumps.\u00a0\u00a0Those were \u201cthe risks\u201d of growing up in those days.\u00a0\u00a0Somehow I avoided the chicken pox until an eighth grader in my class managed to infect me . I won\u2019t call him out, but he was a pole vaulter. I was thirty-one, but I managed to survive that and the rest without long-term impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now we have vaccines for those diseases as well.\u00a0\u00a0They are so effective, that the few outlier negative results from the vaccines are greater than damage from the actual diseases.\u00a0\u00a0In our short-term memory society, we forget what those diseases did. Some focus only on the \u201cdangers\u201d of the vaccines.\u00a0\u00a0We are close to wiping out polio (three nations still have \u201cnatural\u201d outbreaks). But there are measles outbreaks, and mumps outbreaks are actually increasing in the United States after several years of only a few cases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Today we also have a vaccine for versions of the \u201cflu\u201d. But there\u2019s a problem. The \u201cflu\u201d isn\u2019t one virus it\u2019s multiple viruses. So a \u201cflu\u201d shot might protect you from one version, but not another, and so folks say: \u201cI got the shot, but I still got the flu\u201d. It doesn\u2019t mean the vaccine didn\u2019t work but it didn\u2019t work for the version you got. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
But that has been the example that everyone uses to \u201cprove\u201d that \u201cvaccines don\u2019t work\u201d. And there is a growing number of folks who are \u201canti-vaxxers\u201d who blame vaccines for all sorts of side effects. There is little scientific evidence of that, but the seeds of doubt are sown. Some parents are leaving their children unprotected, making the mumps, measles and chicken pox more prevalent childhood diseases again. And while some vaccines do have side effects, the impacts of the diseases themselves can be much worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Today there is a rush to develop a vaccine for COVID-19. We are in a hurry; the disease is rampant and deadly for the vulnerable. But there are all sorts of dangers of \u201churrying\u201d the vaccine, only one of which is that the first vaccines might be only fifty-percent effective. That works for epidemiologists: fifty-percent protection is a whole lot better than none. But in a society that already questions the established vaccinations like polio and measles, a vaccine that will \u201cfail\u201d half the time isn\u2019t likely to be accepted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And there\u2019s a second problem. There\u2019s a movement among some today saying that we should just allow COVID to \u201cburn through\u201d America. Let everyone get sick, and those that get over it will be \u201cdone\u201d. It\u2019s not unlike my childhood when we \u201call\u201d got measles, mumps, and the rest. But we are just learning the long-term impacts of COVID even on those who are \u201chealthy\u201d. We don\u2019t even know that having COVID once creates a long-term immunity. Is it the measles, a one-time deal, or the flu? <\/p>\n\n\n\n
And if it does create a long-term immunity, then according to them, we will get \u201cherd immunity\u201d and we can go about our life.\u00a0\u00a0Eventually there might be a ninety-nine percent effective vaccine, and that could protect the most at risk.\u00a0\u00a0The big concern with this \u201cattitude\u201d:\u00a0\u00a0to reach \u201cherd immunity\u201d it will require sixty percent of the population to be infected.\u00a0That’s near 200 million.\u00a0\u00a0With a fatality rate is just one percent (and the trend is closer to three) that would be two million dead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The President\u2019s newest science advisor, Dr. Scott Atlas, is an advocate of herd immunity. And while there has been no \u201cannouncement\u201d, changes in policy from the White House and the Centers for Disease Control seems to be moving towards that strategy as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The alternative to “herd immunity” is what most of our epidemiologists have advised:\u00a0\u00a0masks, distancing, keep places where people gather to small numbers and avoid \u201cmass spreader\u201d events.\u00a0\u00a0This keeps people from getting COVID, and puts America in a \u201cnew reality\u201d until an effective vaccine is developed.\u00a0\u00a0And since only a small percentage of Americans would actually get the disease, a much smaller number will die.\u00a0\u00a0Instead of two million, if we followed the advise, we never would have gotten to the 185,000 today, or 200,000 in the next couple of weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is a legitimate policy question.\u00a0 Should we work for herd immunity to regain our national economy and \u201clife”? Or should we keep the disease in check until a viable vaccine is available?\u00a0\u00a0But we do need to call it out:\u00a0\u00a0getting to herd immunity means a huge sacrifice of our elderly, and our sick, and our vulnerable.\u00a0\u00a0Yes, the economy will continue, and little Johnny can play soccer or football or run races and everyone can come and watch.\u00a0\u00a0But many will be sacrificed, including perhaps, even little Johnny.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"