Here\u2019s an update on the coronavirus. We know if you\u2019re healthy, especially young and healthy – coronavirus is generally not a risk to you. If you\u2019re older – like me – or have underlying health issues \u2013 or both – coronavirus puts you in danger. We think 80% of people who get coronavirus will be ok.\u00a0 The other 20% will face serious illness with possible long-term damage, and particularly lung damage. And of course some small percentage\u00a0of them, elderly mostly – will die.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You read the memes and messages – flu kills more people – we don\u2019t freak out about it. Measles is more easily transmitted – and we are only mildly concerned. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
And there is the one scientific fact that we absolutely know. If we don\u2019t test people for coronavirus, we won\u2019t know how many people are sick. Many will have cold and flu symptoms, and simply treat themselves. They won\u2019t \u201cgo in the count\u201d. But they will have the opportunity to spread their disease, for up to two weeks before they experience whatever symptoms they are going to have.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not testing doesn\u2019t mean we\u2019re doing better than other countries, like Italy or Iran or China. It simply means we don\u2019t know what we don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But we have vaccines for both flu and measles. Much of the concern about those diseases is that by not getting vaccinated, those most in danger are placed at the greatest risk – people immune compromised or otherwise unable to be protected. It\u2019s not so much that you or your kid will get sick, it\u2019s that you or they become a walking infection machine before being aware they are sick. Then they infect those who can\u2019t survive the disease. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
And there\u2019s no vaccine for coronavirus: all that can be done is treat symptoms in those who become critically ill. In a letter from an Italian doctor I read recently, he spoke of the shortage of mechanical vents, breathing machines, in Italian hospitals. Operating rooms are turned into intensive care units as the last vents left available. In some cities there is no other medical care going on other than treating coronavirus. The at-risk twenty percent are overwhelming. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here in America we are being given lessons on washing hands. We are told stay six feet from each other (try that in any public school classroom in America) and sneeze in your elbow, not your hands. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Doesn\u2019t that sound reassuring? Modern science at it\u2019s best, saving society with soap, water, and alcohol based sanitizer. That\u2019s it: sing a song while you wash your hands? Our vaunted medical establishment, the folks that stopped Ebola, that\u2019s all they\u2019ve got?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So let\u2019s get all this straight. COVID 19 is the particular coronavirus we are worried about. The opportunity to \u201ccontain\u201d the virus has passed, with \u201ccommunity transmission\u201d (sounds like a cable company) occurring in several parts of the United States. Now, all that can be done is mitigation \u2013 another term for cutting losses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Like the Ebola outbreak in 2014, we\u2019ve started with nothing more than isolation and \u201cmitigation\u201d. The difference is during Ebola; mitigation was quickly followed by a vaccine of sorts, and even more specific treatment options. And there was no \u201ccommunity transmission\u201d. But we are being told by the \u201cbest and the brightest\u201d of American medicine, that a vaccine is a year away, at minimum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cBut the spring will end this,\u201d they say.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cLike the flu, it will go away in the summer sun.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0We don\u2019t have any reason to know that.\u00a0\u00a0It didn\u2019t happen with the Spanish Flu in the horrible epidemics from 1918 to 1920.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0And by the way, it isn\u2019t the temperature that reduces the incidence of disease.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s the fact that folks spend more time outside, beyond the four walls of the hothouse disease spreading environments of their homes and offices.\u00a0\u00a0School\u2019s out too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s disappointing. We expected more from our science, and our government. But we are here now, facing a massive infection of American society. This isn\u2019t the apocalypse, and this particular disease won\u2019t end our society, though it already is having a dramatic impact on our economy. Oil prices are down: China\u2019s not using as much, and a tiff between Russia and Saudi Arabia means that the supply will go up. That\u2019s fine; gas prices will probably drop again soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That will match the stock market, after a few days of near free-fall. The Market is looking forward to limited productions, supply-line disruptions, and possible citywide quarantines. Working from home doesn\u2019t work, if you\u2019re a restaurant, or a factory, or a distributor. While the Administration and the Federal Reserve will try to \u201cpump\u201d the economy by adding funds, money might not solve the market value problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s America.\u00a0\u00a0We will find a way to muddle through.\u00a0\u00a0We will have elections and conventions, and probably the World Series as well.\u00a0\u00a0But denial is not the answer.\u00a0\u00a0We need to recognize the problem, realize that some will in fact get sick, really sick, and some will die.\u00a0We need our hospitals to get prepared for the onslaught. And then, \u00a0we\u2019ll have to deal with it, not ignore it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"