{"id":2456,"date":"2019-10-30T07:34:54","date_gmt":"2019-10-30T11:34:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=2456"},"modified":"2019-10-30T07:34:59","modified_gmt":"2019-10-30T11:34:59","slug":"the-pelosi-plan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2019\/10\/30\/the-pelosi-plan\/","title":{"rendered":"The Pelosi Plan"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Be Careful What You Ask For<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

House Democrats gave Republicans and the President what they asked for yesterday. Trump supporters have decried the process of impeachment, demanding that the Democrats stop their \u201cillegitimate\u201d approach to investigating Mr. Trump\u2019s actions.  Republicans demanded \u201ca vote\u201d to put the impeachment process \u201con the record.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thursday they will get what they want.\u00a0\u00a0Speaker Pelosi is putting the impeachment inquiry resolution up for a vote.\u00a0\u00a0The Speaker doesn\u2019t leave anything to chance, if the vote is going to the floor, then the vote will pass.\u00a0\u00a0Past Democratic arguments over the vulnerability of some of their House members are now over; the evidence is convincing enough that most of them are \u201cinoculated\u201d from sacrificing their seats.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then, Republicans will have their \u201cprocess problem\u201d solved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, they won\u2019t.  Senator Lindsey Graham, sponsoring a Senate bill decrying the House process, has already used that famous legal trope \u201c\u2026you can\u2019t \u2018un-ring\u2019 the bell.\u201d  He means that, in his view, once the House began without a resolution, they can\u2019t add one on now.  But Graham would find any fault to try to save the President from impeachment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hammer Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Speaking of legal tropes, we have recently heard a lot about this one:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you have the law, hammer the law.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you have the facts, hammer the facts.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

 If you have neither the law or the facts, hammer the table.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As witness after witness speaks to the House Intelligence Committee, the information coming out has made it clear that the Republicans have neither the law, nor the facts.  The President of the United States, in a months-long concerted effort highlighted by a direct phone call to the President of Ukraine, withheld vital defense funds from that country to extort a public investigation of his Democratic political opponent.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those are the facts.  The law is just as clear, the President of the United States used needed defense funds to force Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son.  Biden is a likely opponent in 2020, and more importantly, is the one that currently has the greatest chance of beating Trump in the election. Asking a foreign nation to intervene in US elections is a violation of campaign law, and Trump\u2019s actions also violate Congressionally mandated spending.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Much like bribing a \u201cporn star\u201d to keep his affair from the public, Mr. Trump\u2019s team is likely to say, it\u2019s only \u201celection laws\u201d not really important ones.  They got away with this argument once, though Michael Cohen is paying the price in jail today.  But this \u201cpayment\u201d is much more serious, it\u2019s not Mr. Trump\u2019s money laundered through a dummy corporation, it\u2019s US government money, our money, that\u2019s being used to advance his political campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So Republicans will keep hammering the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Convince the People<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Speaker Pelosi is outlining the next steps towards impeachment:  open hearings of the witnesses.  Democrats will lay their case before the public, a public that already supports the impeachment inquiry 51% to 42% (RCP<\/a>.)  The Democrats\u2019 goal:  to convince the majority of the American people that the President has abused the powers of his office, and deserves to be removed from it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it\u2019s not just the American people that Pelosi wants to influence.  When the President is impeached, the Senate of the United States will sit in judgment of his actions.  It requires 67 Senators approval to remove the President from office. There are 47 Democrats and Independents; to remove him twenty Republican Senators would have to turn against their President.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this age of extreme partisanship, it seems impossible to imagine that twenty Republicans would have the courage to stand against the President\u2019s twitter rampages, and more importantly, the 42% of Americans who still think that he is doing a good job (RCP<\/a>).  The \u201cage\u201d of Profiles in Courage <\/em>seems long gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Pelosi isn\u2019t depending on courage.\u00a0\u00a0Her goal is to depend on the Republican\u2019s sense of self-preservation.\u00a0\u00a0If the polling numbers continue to shift against the President, there will be a point where Mitch McConnell sees Trump as an anchor dragging down the GOP Senate majority.\u00a0\u00a0At that point, McConnell could well \u201ccut the line,\u201d knowing that Vice President Mike Pence is even more amenable to Senate Republican interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is the real percentage of Mr. Trump\u2019s hardcore base?  Should the job approval ratings drop into the low thirties, or the percent for impeachment get near sixty, Majority Leader McConnell will have a real choice to make:  save the President (perhaps only to lose in 2020) or save the Republican Senate majority. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nixon Went<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s already started.\u00a0\u00a0When the \u201cwhistleblower\u201d report first came out, there were questions about whether the Senate would even \u201chold\u201d an impeachment trial.\u00a0\u00a0But as the Democratic investigation has progressed, Mr. McConnell has laid out a full judicial process of Senate impeachment trials, and made it clear that Senators can expect perhaps a month of six day-a-week hearings.\u00a0\u00a0As the information got more serious, so did he.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Richard Nixon, through most of his administration, had a job approval rating of 55% or more.\u00a0\u00a0It was only in the last year that his ratings dropped, averaging 34% and ending in the last two months at 24% (Gallup<\/a>.)\u00a0\u00a0The present era is different \u2013 for those who remember the controversies of the late 1960\u2019s and early 1970\u2019s, the divisions today seem even worse.\u00a0\u00a0The \u201csides,\u201d \u201cTrumpers\u201d and \u201cResistors,\u201d seem even more set in stone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So while Trump never saw the \u201chigh\u201d approval rating Nixon reached, he probably won\u2019t see the low either.  But there is a point where, shorn of all but his most loyal supporters, the Senate may be unable to sustain him.  If that happens, like Nixon, Trump will have to chose between removal or resignation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that\u2019s what Speaker Pelosi is trying to do.  Her strategy isn\u2019t just a House impeachment; it\u2019s a plan to remove the President from office.  But she can only do that if the American people are convinced she is right.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Be Careful What You Ask For House Democrats gave Republicans and the President what they asked for yesterday. Trump supporters have decried the process of impeachment, demanding that the Democrats stop their \u201cillegitimate\u201d approach to investigating Mr. Trump\u2019s actions.  Republicans demanded \u201ca vote\u201d to put the impeachment process \u201con the record.\u201d Thursday they will get what they … Continue reading “The Pelosi Plan”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Pelosi Plan : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The House takes its first Impeachment vote. 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