It\u2019s pretty clear. The President wanted an investigation of Joe Biden and his son. He wanted it badly enough, that he was willing to withhold funds from Ukraine, funds that were desperately needed to fend off Russian advances in the ongoing war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It isn\u2019t clear what the Ukraine was willing to do, but whatever they decided, who could blame them. They are between a literal rock, Russia, and a hard place, Trump. Even though they\u2019ve investigated Biden and found nothing, they certainly would do so again to survive. And this time, they\u2019ll find something. It\u2019s what Trump wanted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The evidence is plain, and provided by the White House. We have a \u201csummary\u201d of his conversation with President Zelensky, and we have the \u201cWhistleblower\u2019s Complaint,\u201d also provided by them. If this is the stuff they willingly provided, how bad must the actual transcript be?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The President of the United States got on the phone with a foreign leader and asked for a favor. The favor was to get dirt on his enemies, to help him politically in the next election. The \u201cquid pro quo\u201d was the money for Ukrainian defense, money already approved by the United States Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s asked for favors before. Remember that first call to the President of Mexico, when Trump begged for him to pay for \u201cTHE WALL?\u201d The difference there, at least to our knowledge, wasn\u2019t there wasn\u2019t the offer of a quid pro quo, he wasn\u2019t dangling the money of the government of the United States. He was trying to fulfill an ill conceived campaign promise, not get outside help to trash an opponent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
But there was Trump, talking to Zelensky, making \u201c\u2026an offer he can\u2019t refuse.\u201d It would make the plot for a great comedy on Netflixs if it wasn\u2019t true, sort of the Sopranos meets Vice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Don\u2019t get lost in the smoke. There\u2019s already a lot of it out there. Giuliani is trying to \u201cflip the script,\u201d claiming he\u2019s he \u201creal whistleblower.\u201d His fantasy: that Biden intervened to protect his son, that the 2016 election interference was from Ukraine, not Russia, that Hillary Clinton\u2019s email server is somewhere in Kyiv, and Ukraine was working for Clinton, not Russia for Trump. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Of course, the Mueller Report states the opposite.\u00a0\u00a0But the \u201cbig lie\u201d theory of the Trump campaign continues with Giuliani at the lead:\u00a0\u00a0the bigger the lie, the better.\u00a0\u00a0And half of Fox News is backing the play, with Hannity and Carlson, and particularly the \u201cGiuliani whisperer,\u201d Ingraham, all chiming in.\u00a0\u00a0Oddly the other half, Chris Wallace and Shep Smith, are calling out their comrades in \u201cFoxiness.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0They obviously can\u2019t stomach the lies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even the \u201cabove the fray\u201d Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, has a hand in this. He ordered another investigation of the Clinton emails, this time threatening anyone who emailed Clinton on her private server from the State Department. The Department is finding them \u201cculpable\u201d for sending classified emails to a private server. Those emails weren\u2019t classified until long after the fact of their delivery, but that doesn\u2019t matter to Pompeo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For the personnel involved, it may mean a tough time renewing security clearances. But the real purpose is to stir more mud up for 2020. If they can\u2019t chant \u201clock him up\u201d then back to the old favorite, \u201clock her up.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Speaker Pelosi\u2019s strategy is clear.\u00a0\u00a0Put a simple, one part impeachment article on the floor of the House of Representatives. There is so much, Russia, taxes, emoluments:\u00a0\u00a0but this is the one clear act; extortion, withholding the money, and hiding the evidence.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s simple, it\u2019s easy to understand, and it\u2019s immediate.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0There is already a majority in the House ready to vote for it; they are waiting for the process of \u201ceducating the American people.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Educating the American people is really a political term. By taking the time and effort to hold hearings, listen to testimony and present evidence, the House hopes to win support from citizens, who will then hold their Senators accountable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Actual impeachment is bringing charges against, in this case, the President of the United States.\u00a0\u00a0It is the US Senate with the power to adjudicate those charges.\u00a0\u00a0The President can be removed and barred from running for office by two-thirds majority vote, sixty-seven Senators.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are forty-seven Democrats (with two independents) and fifty-three Republicans. Assuming all forty-seven Democrats would vote to remove the President, including Joe Manchin from West Virginia; it would take twenty Republicans to convict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It seems an impossible task, convincing twenty Republicans Senators to vote against President Trump.\u00a0\u00a0And it may well be.\u00a0\u00a0But former Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona let out the \u201cdirty little secret\u201d of the Senate Republican caucus. Flake estimates that thirty-five of the fifty-three would vote to remove the President, except for the political ramifications.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The greatest fear for most Republican US Senators is a primary challenge from the right. Primary voters are dominated by the extremes of the Party, in the GOP, by Trump supporters. Twenty-one Republican Senate seats are up in 2020. Ten of those seats are considered \u201cat risk,\u201d vulnerable to a strong Democratic challenger. But all of those seats would be open to a primary challenge from the right, if they supported removing the President. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the House presents a compelling case for removal to the American people, the Senators are left with a difficult choice.\u00a0\u00a0They could vote their conscience, as we know from Jeff Flake they actually have.\u00a0 Senators could vote to remove a President who is running US foreign policy like an unprofessional Mafia don.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They could do so, and risk the fallout of a primary challenge from the right, backed with the full Twitter power of the (disgraced) President and his allies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Or they could choose political expediency, and stand with Trump. But that creates a problem too, at least for the ten at most risk. If the American people recognize their lack of political courage, will they be able to win a general election and keep their seat? <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Courage or Expediency: they must pick their poison. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"