{"id":2195,"date":"2019-08-19T07:26:19","date_gmt":"2019-08-19T11:26:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=2195"},"modified":"2019-08-19T07:26:24","modified_gmt":"2019-08-19T11:26:24","slug":"american-pie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2019\/08\/19\/american-pie\/","title":{"rendered":"American Pie"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"223\" height=\"226\" data-attachment-id=\"2196\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2019\/08\/19\/american-pie\/us-flag-pie\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dahlman.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/US-Flag-Pie.jpeg?fit=223%2C226&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"223,226\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"US-Flag-Pie\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dahlman.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/US-Flag-Pie.jpeg?fit=223%2C226&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dahlman.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/US-Flag-Pie.jpeg?resize=223%2C226&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2196\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cutting the Pie<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Winning Presidential elections in America in the past twenty years was pretty simple.\u00a0\u00a0The Republican candidate could depend on about 40% of the vote.\u00a0\u00a0The Democratic candidate could depend on about 40% of their vote.\u00a0\u00a0Whoever manages to persuade a majority of the remaining 20%, wins.\u00a0Sometimes they haven\u2019t even needed a majority.\u00a0\u00a0George Bush in 2000, and Donald Trump in 2016 were able to \u201cthread the needle\u201d in the Electoral College to win the Presidency while losing the popular vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The battle became persuading the 20%, and getting a bigger slice of that voter pie then the opponent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What this also means is that there is a voting group who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, and Donald Trump in 2016.\u00a0\u00a0That\u2019s hard to imagine, but it seems to be the case especially in the critical electoral states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s also true in Ohio; a state that gave 51.5% and 50.7% to Obama, then 51.7% to Trump.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Winning the Middle<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So if you accept the historical divisions in America, then the election will be won by winning 11% of the middle voters.&nbsp;&nbsp;This requires that the successful candidate appeal to the Obama\/Trump voters, by finding the odd commonality in those two men.&nbsp;&nbsp;There are two places where Obama and Trump touched a similar theme.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first is the plight of the \u201cworking man.\u201d&nbsp;&nbsp;It isn\u2019t just about employment, but also about the fact that a \u201cworking wage\u201d in America doesn\u2019t provide enough for the \u201cAmerican Dream.\u201d&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;In households with kids, 63% had both parents employed (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/famee.nr0.htm\">BLS<\/a>).&nbsp;The America those parents grew up in usually had one parent working, making a wage that could provide for the needs of the family.&nbsp;&nbsp;Now that same family requires two wage earners, and is still struggling to live \u201cthe Dream.\u201d&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Change Gonna Come<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The second is the desire for change.&nbsp;&nbsp;Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016 both represented \u201cchange\u201d candidates, running against the current government and bureaucracies.&nbsp;&nbsp;Both times, voters wanted someone different, new, and not committed to current policy.&nbsp;&nbsp;And both times they got their wish.&nbsp;&nbsp;But once in office, Obama found himself stymied by his own Party in Congress, unwilling to move forward on his program of \u201cchange we can believe in.\u201d&nbsp;&nbsp;He spent most of his political capital passing the Affordable Care Act, a moderate Republican measure, and it\u2019s passage cost Democrats control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the next six years, the goal of the Senate Majority Leader (McConnell) was to stop Obama from getting anything done.&nbsp;&nbsp;And, like it or not, McConnell was damn good at his job.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump ran on the \u201cMake America Great Again\u201d slogan, the idea that we could change \u201cback\u201d to an America where \u201cthings were better,\u201d at least for the Midwest, white, working man.&nbsp;&nbsp;He promised steel and coal jobs that could provide for a family on one income.&nbsp;&nbsp;It was the kind of change a frustrated Pennsylvania (or Ohio) worker wanted to hear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Traditional Pieing<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So this was the \u201ctraditional \u201c model of campaigning.&nbsp;&nbsp;Hillary Clinton followed this strategy, and so did Trump.&nbsp;&nbsp;And, without getting into the impact Russian intervention, social media or the FBI had on the election returns; Trump seemed to narrowly get the best of it.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Candidates in 2020 running on the same theory would have to do the following.\u00a0\u00a0President Trump would need to convince folks that he has come through, and that the \u201cchange\u201d he promised is here, or at least just around the corner.\u00a0He needs good economic numbers to tell those Midwest, white, workers that they will see financial gains soon, and will have the opportunity to live the \u201cAmerican Dream\u201d they hoped to find.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Democratic candidate must not only convince those voters that President Trump didn\u2019t come through for them, but must offer alternate plans that would help fulfill their goals.\u00a0The Sherrod Brown \u201cdignity of work\u201d philosophy is particularly geared to that theme added to by his famous phrase \u201c\u2026whether they shower before work or after.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0Democrats recognize the power of the worker.  But they also know at the same time they need workers, they must get both a high percentage of minority votes, but also a huge turnout of minority voters.\u00a0\u00a0So while they speak to the 11%, they can\u2019t forget about getting their 40% to the polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pie Expansion<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>But there is an alternative theory to the 2020 election.\u00a0\u00a0Folks like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren hope to turn out a whole new faction of voters who generally haven\u2019t voted before.\u00a0\u00a0The 20 to 35 year old voters have traditionally had a low turnout percentage.\u00a0\u00a0The most progressive wing of the Democratic Party hopes to reach those voters and get them to the polls.  They are offering changes that will specifically impact those voters:  reducing student debt, and protecting the environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Trump campaign also has an alternate theory of 2020.&nbsp;&nbsp;They believe that there is a faction of Americans who normally don\u2019t vote, but are being encouraged to do so now by the President\u2019s rhetoric.&nbsp;&nbsp;This is the \u201cStephen Miller\u201d strategy, named for the Presidential Advisor.&nbsp;&nbsp;He believes that you can bring this new faction to bear, by the high rhetoric and actions of the President towards immigrants on the Southern Border.&nbsp;&nbsp;This \u201cfear of invasion\u201d tactic attempts to create a black and white contrast.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a0The Trump Campaign claims that Democrats want open borders and unregulated migration.\u00a0\u00a0They say that those folks will come and commit crimes, spend your government money, and, most importantly, take you jobs.  The President is trying to stop those things from happening to you.\u00a0\u00a0Building a wall, separating children from parents, and rounding up illegals is all part of the plan to \u201cprotect you\u201d from their incursions.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0As President Trump himself said, you really don\u2019t have a choice; you have to vote for him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Place Your Bet<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So the election of 2020 will determine which&nbsp;&nbsp;\u201cphilosophy of pie\u201d is correct.&nbsp;&nbsp;For the Democrats, if the traditional pie holds true, then a more traditional candidate will likely be successful.&nbsp;&nbsp;There is no one more traditional than Joe Biden, and no candidate more poised to reach those workers in the Midwest.&nbsp;&nbsp;And Biden, in part through his association with President Obama, is able to energize the minority voters as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But if this is an expanding pie election, Biden may not be the right guy.&nbsp;&nbsp;The younger, more progressive candidates are more likely to appeal to the 20-35 voting block.&nbsp;&nbsp;Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, Booker all fit that model.&nbsp;&nbsp;And while Bernie Sanders is much older, he still has the \u201coutsider\u201d and \u201cmaverick\u201d appeal that reaches those swing voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Will the pie be sliced the same old way, or will it become a bigger pie?\u00a0\u00a0That is the critical question in the 2020 election.\u00a0\u00a0And it\u2019s not just \u201cany old\u201d Presidential election in 2020, it certainly seems like an \u201cinflection point\u201d in American history.\u00a0\u00a0The result of\u00a0\u00a02020 may well determine the future of the America\u2019s experiment in Democracy.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cutting the Pie Winning Presidential elections in America in the past twenty years was pretty simple.\u00a0\u00a0The Republican candidate could depend on about 40% of the vote.\u00a0\u00a0The Democratic candidate could depend on about 40% of their vote.\u00a0\u00a0Whoever manages to persuade a majority of the remaining 20%, wins.\u00a0Sometimes they haven\u2019t even needed a majority.\u00a0\u00a0George Bush in 2000, &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2019\/08\/19\/american-pie\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;American Pie&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>American Pie : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There are two ways to view the &quot;American Pie&quot; of voters for the 2020 election. 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After forty years of teaching and coaching track and cross country, I've finally retired!!! 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