{"id":2172,"date":"2019-08-14T09:13:54","date_gmt":"2019-08-14T13:13:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=2172"},"modified":"2019-08-14T09:13:59","modified_gmt":"2019-08-14T13:13:59","slug":"the-republican-autopsy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2019\/08\/14\/the-republican-autopsy\/","title":{"rendered":"The Republican Autopsy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Nope \u2013 not talking about Epstein\u2019s autopsy.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Failure Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On March 11, 2013, the leadership of the Republican National Committee released their \u201cautopsy\u201d on the 2012 Presidential election.&nbsp;&nbsp;Incumbent Democrat Barack Obama soundly beat Republican Mitt Romney.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;At least, it was a sound beating in the Electoral College, with Obama getting 332 votes to Romney\u2019s 206.&nbsp;&nbsp;The electoral outcome belied the closeness of the popular vote:&nbsp;Obama had 51.1% to Romney\u2019s 47.2%, a mere five million votes more out of the 127 million cast.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Republican Party had lost four of the last six Presidential elections, and the popular vote in five out of six.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>1992 \u2013 Clinton over HW Bush&nbsp;<\/li><li>1996 \u2013 Clinton over Dole<\/li><li>2000 \u2013 W Bush over Gore* (Gore won the popular vote)<\/li><li>2004- -W Bush over Kerry<\/li><li>2008 \u2013 Obama over McCain<\/li><li>2012 \u2013 Obama over Romney<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Regional Winners<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But, Republicans were winning on the state level.\u00a0\u00a0The \u201cRed Map\u201d gerrymandering plan was effectively gaining control of more state legislatures.\u00a0\u00a0Thirty states had Republican governors.\u00a0\u00a0Congressional maps were altered to improve GOP chances in the House of Representatives, gaining and expanding their majority control.\u00a0\u00a0And the Republican \u201cvoter ID program&#8221; suppressed Democratic votes and impacted turnout, particularly in non-Presidential years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But, on the national level, the Republican leadership felt their relevance slipping away. As the \u201cautopsy\u201d put it:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cPublic perception of the Party is at record lows. Young voters are increasingly rolling their eyes at what the Party represents, and many minorities wrongly think that Republicans do not like them or want them in the country. When someone rolls their eyes at us, they are not likely to open their ears to us.\u201d (<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2013\/03\/what-you-need-to-read-in-the-rnc-election-autopsy-report\/274112\/\"><em>Atlantic<\/em><\/a><em>)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Party of White Men<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The \u201cautopsy\u201d recognized the Republicans must reach minorities, youth, and women to stay relevant in national races.&nbsp;&nbsp;Otherwise the party would have influence only on regional matters.&nbsp;&nbsp;They would become the Party of white men and demographically, a party doomed to fade away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2013, the Republican leadership looked at the changing demographics of America, and agreed they needed to reach Latino communities.\u00a0\u00a0The report stated:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cIf Hispanic Americans hear that the GOP doesn&#8217;t want them in the United States, they won&#8217;t pay attention to our next sentence. It doesn&#8217;t matter what we say about education, jobs or the economy; if Hispanics think that we do not want them here, they will close their ears to our policies. In essence, Hispanic voters tell us our Party&#8217;s position on immigration has become a litmus test, measuring whether we are meeting them with a welcome mat or a closed door.\u201d(<\/em><a><em>Atlantic<\/em><\/a><em>)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The \u201cAutopsy\u201d also pointed out that the Republican Party needed to reach out to women.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cThe RNC must improve its efforts to include female voters and promote women to leadership ranks within the committee. Additionally, when developing our Party&#8217;s message, women need to be part of this process to represent some of the unique concerns that female voters may have<\/em>.\u201d&nbsp;<em>(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2013\/03\/what-you-need-to-read-in-the-rnc-election-autopsy-report\/274112\/\">Atlantic<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Golden Escalator<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All of this was thrown out the window when Donald Trump came down the \u201cgolden escalator\u201d and said about Mexican migrants;\u00a0<em>\u201c\u2026They\u2019re bringing drugs. They\u2019re bringing crime. They\u2019re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.\u201d (<a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/3923128\/donald-trump-announcement-speech\/\">Time<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Or was it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yesterday I listened to Michael Steel, aide to former Republican Speaker Boehner.\u00a0\u00a0Steel worked for Jeb Bush in the 2016 Presidential campaign.\u00a0He made it clear that the Republican Party was forced to choose in 2016:\u00a0\u00a0either to follow the \u201cAutopsy\u201d into the future, or cobble together the \u201cold\u201d coalition one more time.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Donald Trump forced that choice by bringing a powerful combination of racism, nationalism and star power to a primary packed with \u201cpolicy wonks.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0Bush, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, Paul; all made their marks as serious men talking about serious issues.\u00a0\u00a0Trump blew them away with his disregard for policy, the truth, and social norms.\u00a0\u00a0It was the exact formula to gain mass appeal that the others couldn\u2019t match.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It worked in the general election as well, with Hillary Clinton the archetypical \u201cwonk:\u201d perhaps she would make a great President, but she was a poor candidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the longer course of history will run in favor of the \u201cautopsy results.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0The election in 2018 demonstrated the change:\u00a0\u00a0even in Republican Georgia with the full force of voter suppression in play, Democratic Governor candidate Stacy Abrams came within a couple of percent of winning.\u00a0\u00a0A Democrat won the Senate seat in Arizona.\u00a0\u00a0If that can happen in these \u201cRed\u201d states, then it foretells a dwindling future for the Republican Party.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Change or Fade<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All of this doesn\u2019t guarantee a Trump loss in 2020.\u00a0\u00a0Democrats will need to field a candidate who can reach beyond \u201cpolicy wonk\u201d to touch American lives.\u00a0\u00a0A successful nominee needs to bring more voters to the polls than Clinton did in 2016, knowing full well that Trump will maximize the \u201cold white\u201d vote, and may have the &#8220;hidden hand&#8221; of election meddling on his side.  \u00a0It is a critical election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But in the longer term, Trump will fade.\u00a0\u00a0His \u201cspecial mix\u201d will be near impossible to replicate.\u00a0\u00a0Lindsey Graham, Mike Pence, Donald Junior:  all may hope to inherit the mantle, but none of them seem to have the &#8220;super power&#8221; that Trump has with his base.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2012 \u201cAutopsy\u201d wasn\u2019t wrong.&nbsp;&nbsp;The Republican Party will either change or stop being a national force.&nbsp;&nbsp;What Trump has managed to do, is delay the inevitable for four years.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Democrats:  nominate a strong enough candidate to make sure it\u2019s not eight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nope \u2013 not talking about Epstein\u2019s autopsy.\u00a0\u00a0 Failure Analysis On March 11, 2013, the leadership of the Republican National Committee released their \u201cautopsy\u201d on the 2012 Presidential election.&nbsp;&nbsp;Incumbent Democrat Barack Obama soundly beat Republican Mitt Romney.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;At least, it was a sound beating in the Electoral College, with Obama getting 332 votes to Romney\u2019s 206.&nbsp;&nbsp;The electoral &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2019\/08\/14\/the-republican-autopsy\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The Republican Autopsy&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2172","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Republican Autopsy : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In 2013 Republicans analyzed what their Party needed to do to remain relevant in the future. 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