It was the spring of 2016.\u00a0The FBI counter-intelligence division was embroiled in the politically explosive Clinton email investigation.\u00a0\u00a0They were analyzing whether the former Secretary of State knowingly and intentionally put classified emails on her personal email account.\u00a0\u00a0Secretary Clinton had thousands of \u201cwork\u201d emails on her personal server, located in the basement of her home in New York. When she left office, her attorneys arranged for thousands of them to be destroyed.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The illegal act was there, putting government emails on a private server. The Secretary “demonstrated” knowledge of guilt by trying to \u201ccover it up\u201d by having the emails destroyed.\u00a0\u00a0Members of her staff were \u201ctaking the Fifth.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0The sole factor preventing an indictment: proof that she had \u201cthe requisite intent\u201d to violate the law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was disagreement within the FBI.\u00a0\u00a0Many, including perhaps the Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, believed that if Hillary Clinton didn\u2019t have \u201cintent,\u201d she still acted in such a reckless manner that indictments were warranted.\u00a0\u00a0Others in the investigation, ultimately including FBI Director James Comey, could not find in her actions overwhelming proof of that final step.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And, of course, she was the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for President of the United States.\u00a0\u00a0Beyond that, she was the overwhelming favorite to win.\u00a0\u00a0So there was that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the middle of this mess, the FBI counter-intelligence team began to get disturbing information about Trump campaign contacts with Russian intelligence.\u00a0\u00a0The campaign designated Carter Page as one a foreign policy advisor.\u00a0Page was the subject of FBI investigation in 2014 because of his involvement in a Russian spy ring.\u00a0No charges were brought against him at the time, but the FBI was still watching him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And Mr. Trump hired Paul Manafort as chairman of his campaign. The FBI knew that Manafort was indebted to Russian oligarchs close to Vladimir Putin. They also had concerns about Manafort\u2019s actions in Ukraine, where he received millions of dollars for work supporting the Russian backed President. Much of that money was not declared as US income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A third advisor, retired General Mike Flynn, had travelled to Moscow. He went without the normal clearances from the military required of a former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency.\u00a0\u00a0Flynn literally sat at the right hand of Vladimir Putin at a banquet there, and received a $40,000 payment for speaking (eventual Green Party Presidential candidate, Jill Stein, sat at the same table.)\u00a0\u00a0In addition Flynn was doing work for the Turkish Government while working for Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Also in the spring of 2016, the FBI discovered that the Democratic National Committee\u2019s computers had been hacked. The hacking programs were of such sophistication that they could only be from a national military source (as opposed to a 400 pound man in a basement.)\u00a0\u00a0The infection was so significant, that polling data, opposition research, financial data, and email archives were stolen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But, while counter-intelligence alarm bells were going off, none of those actions were enough to become the \u201cpredicate,\u201d or legal cause for an investigation of the Trump campaign. It would take some evidence of them committing an illegal act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In May of 2016, another designated Trump foreign policy advisor, George Papadapoulos, met Alexander Downer, the Australian Ambassador to the United Kingdom.\u00a0\u00a0In the course of their conversation, Papadapoulos told Downer that the Russians had DNC information and emails, and planned to release them in order to damage the Clinton campaign (National Review<\/a>.)\u00a0\u00a0Australia, along with the US, UK, Canada and New Zealand; is a member of the \u201cFive Eyes\u201d counter-intelligence community that shares information.\u00a0\u00a0Downer reported the conversation to the FBI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For the record, this conversation took place a month before Christopher Steele was hired by Fusion GPS to work on opposition research against Donald Trump. It was at least three months before Steele compiled his first report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n By July of 2016 the FBI knew that\u00a0\u00a0the DNC computers were hacked, and Downer\u2019s information said Russia did it.\u00a0\u00a0They knew that a Trump advisor, Papadapoulos, had contact with the Russians and been told the Russians planned to use it against Clinton.\u00a0\u00a0Other Trump advisors, Page, Manafort and Flynn, had more than questionable contacts with Russia.\u00a0\u00a0All of this not only provided the \u201cpredicate\u201d for opening an investigation into the Trump campaign contacts, but it raised the specter of Russian corrupting a US Presidential campaign. To not open an investigation would be dereliction of duty.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Recently Republicans have raised concerns about \u201cDemocrats and the Deep State Intelligence Community\u201d spying on a Republican Presidential campaign.\u00a0\u00a0Attorney General Barr intentionally used the word \u201cspying\u201d to characterize the actions of the summer of 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Republicans used two issues to try to declare the \u201cpredicate\u201d as invalid.\u00a0\u00a0The first was that the Steele Dossier was somehow used as underlying information.\u00a0\u00a0While the Steele Dossier was not available when the investigation was started, it was mentioned later on in a FISA Warrant extending surveillance of Carter Page.\u00a0Republicans seized on that mention, claiming that \u201cDemocrat Opposition Research\u201d was used to investigate the Trump Campaign.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Steele Dossier is a report compiled by former British intelligence agent, Christopher Steele. While it was intended for use as partisan opposition research, the information Steele discovered was so explosive that Democrats didn\u2019t use it. Steele himself was a trusted source for US intelligence; his work on the FIFA bribery scandal was used to help convict several of the organization\u2019s officials. To date, many of the statements in the Dossier have proven to be factual and none have been disproven (Lawfare<\/a>.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n But attacking the Steele Dossier wasn\u2019t enough.\u00a0\u00a0Republicans weaved a tale to discredit Papadapoulos, trying to remove the \u201cpredicate.\u201d\u00a0Papadapoulos eventually testified that he got the \u201ctip\u201d about Russia\u2019s hacking from an obscure Maltese Professor, Joseph Mifsud.\u00a0\u00a0Mifsud was a professor at the London Academy of Diplomacy, a representative of the government of Malta, and has a close relationship to the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin.\u00a0\u00a0Former FBI Director Comey has testified that the Bureau considered Mifsud a Russian agent.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Republicans have created involved theories portraying Mifsud as a double agent, working for the United States.\u00a0\u00a0They suggest that the FBI had Mifsud plant the hacking information by talking to Papadapoulos, to create the \u201cpredicate.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0While there is little evidence to back this claim, it\u2019s easy to make.\u00a0Mifsud was last in the United States on February 11, 2017.\u00a0\u00a0He disappeared into Europe, and hasn\u2019t been heard from since (NYT<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n Republicans claim as \u201cproof\u201d for their theory the fact that Mueller didn\u2019t indict Mifsud.\u00a0They reason that he must be protected by US intelligence, but\u00a0\u00a0there is a much less complicated explanation.\u00a0\u00a0Muller\u2019s team was only able to question Mifsud once before he disappeared.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0To make a conspiracy indictment, the Mueller team would require a lot more evidence than they had from that one interview.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Republicans are sending a clear message to the US Intelligence Community:\u00a0\u00a0we won, don\u2019t investigate.\u00a0\u00a0The leaders of the Russia investigation are now all gone from government service, driven out or fired.\u00a0\u00a0The list is long:\u00a0\u00a0Comey, McCabe, Ohrs, Strzok, Baker, Page, and others.\u00a0\u00a0This week, the President accepted the resignation of the Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, perhaps the last man in the administration who would speak the truth.\u00a0\u00a0Trump\u2019s replacement:\u00a0\u00a0Texas Congressman John Ratcliffe, one of the leaders of the \u201cDeep State Conspiracy.\u201d\u00a0It is just one more step in burying Russia\u2019s intervention in our election.\u00a0\u00a0Trump is saying: \u201cRussia, if you listening, I could use your help again in 2020.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Predicate for Investigation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Republican Response <\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Mifsud<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The Message<\/h3>\n\n\n\n