{"id":2119,"date":"2019-07-29T09:05:25","date_gmt":"2019-07-29T13:05:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=2119"},"modified":"2019-07-29T09:05:31","modified_gmt":"2019-07-29T13:05:31","slug":"the-politics-of-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2019\/07\/29\/the-politics-of-race\/","title":{"rendered":"The Politics of Race"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A Racist President<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The President of the United States is a racist.\u00a0\u00a0His supporters can rationalize that anyway they want.\u00a0\u00a0They can say that \u201cthe Squad\u201d earned the \u201cgo back where you came from\u201d comment, and that Trump was defending the Border Protection Service when he went after Maryland Congressman Elijah Cummings.\u00a0\u00a0But he used racist words and racist thoughts; however they try to justify it: he is a racist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mary Angelou said, \u201c\u2026when someone tells you who they are, believe them the first time.\u201d  Donald Trump has told us over and over again,  and it\u2019s far past time to believe him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This may or may not be from a \u201cracist\u201d heart; who knows what the President truly thinks?  But it is a racist strategy, a well thought out political plan to win the 2020 election.  Racism isn’t new in politics; in my lifetime George Wallace ran as a third party candidate on a racist ticket, and George HW Bush used the \u201cWillie Horton\u201d ad campaign to put fear of the \u201cblack murderer\u201d in the hearts of \u201cwhite\u201d people.  But not since even before Wallace has the racism been so overt, and so focused.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Doubling Down on Race<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Trump campaign recognizes that whatever they do, 84% or more of black Americans are going to vote for his opponent.\u00a0\u00a0Their thinking: so what if they anger the other 16%, there really aren\u2019t enough votes to matter.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the Trump campaign surely realizes that they are going to alienate some portion of the Hispanic vote.\u00a0They hope that their Venezuela policy and pro-life stand will hold some of them, but the response to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico and the Trump actions on the Southern Border have probably determined that vote already.\u00a0\u00a0A little overt racism won\u2019t change many more minds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I had the opportunity to watch a movie this weekend called \u201cThe Great Hack.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0It was a documentary on how Cambridge Analytica (CA) used psycho-analytics to target the \u201cpersuadable\u201d voters.\u00a0\u00a0Once they knew who those voters were, they gathered as much electronic data on them as they could; preferences, jobs, joys, fears, favorites and deletions.\u00a0CA then used that information to tailor specific messages to those \u201cpersuadables,\u201d using their own personal data to try to push them to vote one way or another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Persuadables<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Trump 2016 campaign \u201cthreaded the needle\u201d of the electoral college, eking out narrow victories in three key states, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.\u00a0\u00a0We don\u2019t know what the\u00a0\u00a0now documented impact of Russian attacks on the voting processes were, but we do know that the campaign and CA focused on changing the \u201cpersuadable\u201d minds to Trump.\u00a0They were successful, particularly with white working men, and white women.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s where the \u201cracist\u201d strategy is focused now.\u00a0\u00a0The Trump campaign knows they will get their 40% base, even if Trump \u201c\u2026shot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0What they are counting on, is that they can persuade more white men and women to vote, in fact, they hope to increase the white vote totals in those states through their racism generated fear. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Trump campaign believes it can increase the size of the electorate, by bringing out white voters who have been sitting on the sidelines.\u00a0\u00a0The \u201cpersuadables\u201d are those who aren\u2019t voting now, using the same \u201cpsycho-analytic\u201d social media techniques to drive home the message. Increasing the turnout of white working men is the goal: 63% of them voted for Trump in 2016 (Guardian<\/a>.)\u00a0\u00a0It worked then, it might well work again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Backlash<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Of course, using this radical strategy will have a backlash.  Not only is it likely to drive up the turnout in minority communities, but also among the more moderate \u201cwhite suburban\u201d groups, particularly women.  Post-election research for 2016 shows that 53% of white women voted for Trump, versus 43% for Clinton (Guardian<\/a>.)  In 2018, 59% of white women voted Democratic (CNN<\/a>.) While Trump wasn’t on the ticket, his impact on that election was significant.  Trump was driving the \u201ccaravan of migrants\u201d argument all the way up to election day.  That argument drove white women voters away from the Republican candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where will these \u201cwhite suburban\u201d women go in 2020?  It\u2019s difficult to see overt racism pushing them towards Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Showing Up<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

There are other groups that Democrats could use to increase the turnout for them.\u00a0\u00a0Younger votes traditionally don\u2019t vote; a candidate that energizes that block could expand the voting pool, and change the election calculations.\u00a0\u00a0But without depending on that, working with the \u201cold\u201d voting model, Democrats need to show up to vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The racist strategy will make the 2020 election about turnout.\u00a0\u00a0Can the Democratic candidate do what Hillary Clinton failed to do:\u00a0increase voter turnout enough to overcome the marginal advantage Trump has in the electoral college.\u00a0\u00a0Two numbers to remember:\u00a0\u00a0Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million; Trump won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by a mere 77744 votes out of over thirteen million votes.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The Democratic candidate needs to get the vote out in those states like never before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If that happens, then the racism \u201cstrategy\u201d will fail.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Racist President The President of the United States is a racist.\u00a0\u00a0His supporters can rationalize that anyway they want.\u00a0\u00a0They can say that \u201cthe Squad\u201d earned the \u201cgo back where you came from\u201d comment, and that Trump was defending the Border Protection Service when he went after Maryland Congressman Elijah Cummings.\u00a0\u00a0But he used racist words and … Continue reading “The Politics of Race”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Politics of Race : Our America - 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