{"id":1980,"date":"2019-07-05T09:35:09","date_gmt":"2019-07-05T13:35:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=1980"},"modified":"2019-07-05T09:35:15","modified_gmt":"2019-07-05T13:35:15","slug":"dont-bet-the-ranch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2019\/07\/05\/dont-bet-the-ranch\/","title":{"rendered":"Don&#8217;t Bet the Ranch"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Don\u2019t Bet the Ranch<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to&nbsp;<em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/zackjones\/2019\/06\/29\/trump-2020-presidential-reelection-odds-highest-ever-following-democratic-debate\/#4019744b10f8\">Forbes Magazine<\/a>,&nbsp;<\/em>Sports bookies think Donald Trump is a shoe-in to win.&nbsp;&nbsp;In a listing of the \u201codds\u201d on the website&nbsp;<em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportsbetting.ag\/sportsbook\/futures-and-props\/politics-futures\">Sports Betting<\/a>,&nbsp;<\/em>betting a $1 on Trump would earn you back only $1.11. The next best bet is on Harris, with $1 returning $2.75.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s not so hard to imagine that sports betters are willing to get into this \u201chorse race.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0These days with legal online betting, you can put a wager down on almost anything.\u00a0\u00a0Even such a \u201cblue-blood\u201d sport as women\u2019s tennis has a betting line, and the recent upsets by a teenager at Wimbleton have \u201cshaken the betting world.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019m not a gambler, but I do know that successful gamblers use past performance to predict future outcomes.&nbsp;It makes sense that an incumbent President, with good economic numbers, and a clearly dedicated core of support, would be the \u201codds-on\u201d favorite to win the White House.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">History Doesn\u2019t Lie<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">History seems to make Trump that good bet.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bill Clinton won re-election in what seems like similar circumstances.\u00a0\u00a0He won his first Presidential election with less than a majority, only gaining 43% of the popular vote in 1992 (<em>Note: this was a three-way election, Bush had 38%, and Ross Perot 19%.)\u00a0<\/em>He lost control of the House of Representatives in 1994, and was investigated by Independent Counsel Ken Starr during the 1996 election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the economy improved in his first term, and the 1996 Republican nominee Bob Dole came from the conservative side of the Republican Party.\u00a0\u00a0In the primaries, he went even farther to the right to offset his strongest opponent, Pat Buchanan.\u00a0\u00a0Clinton himself was from the middle of the political spectrum.\u00a0\u00a0More liberal Democrats (like me) saw him as \u201cRepublican-Lite.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Clinton won in 1996 with 49% to Dole\u2019s 41%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">George W Bush also won under similar circumstances.\u00a0\u00a0He defeated Al Gore, literally by \u201ca hanging chad\u201d in the election of 2000, losing the popular vote but eking out an Electoral College victory.\u00a0\u00a0And while the Democratic candidate in 2004, John Kerry, seemed to have a solid chance, Bush was able to ride his strong performance during 9-11 to a second term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">He Fits the Bill<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So what\u2019s different with the Trump 2020 candidacy?&nbsp;&nbsp;He too had a minority of the popular vote in 2016.&nbsp;&nbsp;He also has improving economic numbers, with the job market growing and the stock market setting record after record.&nbsp;&nbsp;And the loyalty of his base is undeniable.&nbsp;&nbsp;Even a President who talks about the Continental Army capturing airports during the Revolutionary War doesn\u2019t seem to shake their confidence in him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump lost the House of Representatives in 2018 to the Democrats, and is under something like twenty different investigations, from his personal finances to cooperating with the Russians to win in 2016.\u00a0\u00a0And the Democrats are likely to nominate a \u201cliberal\u201d opponent.   Even if a more moderate candidate like Joe Biden wins, he will be forced to move to the Left in the primaries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Gambler\u2019s Choice<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a cold, dispassionate gambler, you probably don\u2019t put money on the 2020 general election at all.&nbsp;There\u2019s no profit to be made on betting on Trump, and the odds, and history, are against anyone else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But, my non-Trumpian friends, don\u2019t tear up your tickets yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Like Trump or not, we know one thing more than anything:&nbsp;&nbsp;he has upended political tradition, changed the way politics works, and has made \u201cunconventional\u201d and \u201cunprecedented\u201d the norm.&nbsp;&nbsp;That\u2019s one of the things that makes \u201cthe Resistance\u201d crazy; Trump does things that would have destroyed the Presidency of anyone else, from Obama to Reagan.&nbsp;&nbsp;It doesn\u2019t seem to matter, he blindly plows on ahead with his 40% cheering him on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The saysing goes, \u201cthere\u2019s is no such thing as a little bit pregnant.\u201d&nbsp;&nbsp;If you are \u201cunprecedented\u201d then the precedents of the past shouldn\u2019t apply.&nbsp;&nbsp;If you break the \u201cnorms\u201d then you can\u2019t expect the norms of the past to count.&nbsp;&nbsp;The inertia of past performance, of history, won\u2019t apply as strongly to a President who is rejecting history left and right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Look inside the numbers:&nbsp;the employment numbers are good, but wage growth is stagnant.&nbsp;&nbsp;That means people are finding work, but the work doesn\u2019t pay the bills.&nbsp;&nbsp;No wonder employment is up, people need to hold down two jobs to make it.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The stock market is booming, in large part because of the Trump Tax Cut. It gave billions of dollars (actually over a trillion) mostly to business.&nbsp;&nbsp;And the businesses did what you&#8217;d expect:&nbsp;&nbsp;they turned a bigger profit thus pushing the Market even higher. Those cuts don\u2019t seem to have translated into stronger American industry, and the average voter isn\u2019t feeling \u201cgood\u201d about their personal finances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How Do They Feel<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump won the Electoral College through a very slim margin in three states, 77744 votes out of 120 million plus to be exact (here\u2019s the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2017\/03\/22\/77744\/\">Trump World<\/a> essay on that.)\u00a0\u00a0The best analysis is that those voters got exactly what they wanted, an \u201cunprecedented\u201d President who didn\u2019t believe in \u201cnorms.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The question anyone betting now has to ask, is this:\u00a0\u00a0now that those voters got what they wanted, are they happier for it?\u00a0\u00a0If the answer is yes, then Trump really might be the safe bet.\u00a0But, if the answer is determined by the unimproved\u00a0\u00a0economic quality of their lives, then it\u2019s likely they will act in an unprecedented manner, and do what angry voters often do:\u00a0\u00a0throw the bum out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Don\u2019t Bet the Ranch According to&nbsp;Forbes Magazine,&nbsp;Sports bookies think Donald Trump is a shoe-in to win.&nbsp;&nbsp;In a listing of the \u201codds\u201d on the website&nbsp;Sports Betting,&nbsp;betting a $1 on Trump would earn you back only $1.11. The next best bet is on Harris, with $1 returning $2.75.&nbsp;&nbsp; It&#8217;s not so hard to imagine that sports betters &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2019\/07\/05\/dont-bet-the-ranch\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Don&#8217;t Bet the Ranch&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Don&#039;t Bet the Ranch : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Sports betters pick Trump to win, but won&#039;t bet on him. 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