{"id":1263,"date":"2018-10-23T11:17:28","date_gmt":"2018-10-23T15:17:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=1263"},"modified":"2018-10-23T11:17:28","modified_gmt":"2018-10-23T15:17:28","slug":"anticipation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2018\/10\/23\/anticipation\/","title":{"rendered":"Anticipation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Anticipation<\/p>\n

Carly Simon playing in \u201cAnticipation\u201d in the background<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

There seems to be a growing malaise among Democrats about the coming mid-term elections.\u00a0 We are told that the \u201cTrump Base\u201d is being energized by the lies the President is spouting:\u00a0 from the \u201cinvasion of the caravan\u201d to the \u201cDemocratic Mob (it\u2019s funny how those two seem to get conflated \u2013 is he really saying Democrats are bringing in 6000 immigrants to add to a \u201cmob\u201d against him?)\u00a0 \u00a0And now there are the phantom riots in California (of course California) not to be confused with the \u201cBowling Green Massacre\u201d of yore.<\/p>\n

The common theme seems to be if the \u201cTrump Base\u201d shows up at the polls, they win, just like 2016.\u00a0 We can see it in the polling; what looked like a Democratic sure-thing two months ago now seems a lot shakier.<\/p>\n

To quote the kids from Parkland \u2013 I call B.S.\u00a0 Here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n

First of all, let\u2019s look at history.\u00a0 Since Franklin Roosevelt became President in 1932, in the twenty-one midterms held, only three times has the President\u2019s Party House NOT lost votes in the House; 1934, 1998 and 2004.\u00a0 In fifteen of those elections the Party in power lost votes in the Senate as well.\u00a0It is traditional, historic, and it makes sense.\u00a0 After two years of a President, Americans have always had a tendency to \u201chedge their bet,\u201d giving more power to the Party out of the White House.\u00a0 We have a tradition of wanting more \u201cchecks and balances\u201d on the now not-so-new President.<\/p>\n

Yes we are in the \u201cpost-apocalyptic\u201d Trump Era; where all rules seem to be \u201coff;\u201d but the weight of history still weighs on the Democratic side \u2013 for this election.<\/p>\n

Second, polling is not just the \u201crandom\u201d phone calls placed to thousands of people that we think of from the \u201cold days.\u201d\u00a0 Fifty years ago, the biggest concern was that somehow a polling sample would be biased like the famous 1948 polling that showed Republican Tom Dewey defeating Democrat Harry Truman.\u00a0 \u00a0Its biggest problem was that it depended on telephone responses in an America where many didn\u2019t have phones yet.<\/p>\n

Today polling is done with much smaller numbers of respondents, and their responses are weighed to match their proportion in the voting population.\u00a0 This \u201cvoting turnout model\u201d tries to match the profile of the respondent with a predicted voter model, that they then use to anticipate how that group will show up to vote.\u00a0 It all sounds technical, and it is, but the key point is this:\u00a0 Democrats traditionally don\u2019t show up for mid-term elections, so polling models will reflect that tradition.\u00a0 If Democrats overwhelm the model, with a significantly larger voter turnout, then the outcomes will be different.<\/p>\n

If Democrats didn\u2019t vote in mid-terms, they surely didn\u2019t show up for special elections.\u00a0 But in the \u201cTrump Era\u201d they have, over and over again.\u00a0They showed up overwhelmingly in the Alabama special Senate election where Democrat Doug Jones won.\u00a0 It happened in the Pennsylvania special House election where Democrat Conor Lamb won.\u00a0 It happened in the Ohio House special election where Democrat Danny O\u2019Connor nearly won, almost flipping a District that voted two-thirds for the Republican in 2016.\u00a0 Recent history trends to a large Democratic turnout.<\/p>\n

And Republicans \u2013 they always show up.\u00a0 That\u2019s been the history over the same seventy-two year period.\u00a0 So if Republicans always show up, and Democrats usually don\u2019t; but Dems are showing up now \u2013 that should mean a big change.<\/p>\n

And why wouldn\u2019t Democrats show up.\u00a0 There is a huge list of issues that should drive Democrats to the polls, led by healthcare.\u00a0 Yesterday the Trump Administration issued rules allowing states to exempt themselves from parts of the Affordable Care Act, including the pre-existing conditions clauses (Huffington Post<\/a>.)\u00a0 This week the President is examining ways of removing civil rights from the transgendered.\u00a0 The United States is threatening to withdraw from nuclear weapons treaties, and the Republican leaders of Congress, having given away trillions in tax cuts, are now discussing how to reduce Medicare and Social Security costs.<\/p>\n

If that doesn\u2019t get Dems to the polls, DACA, child separation, Kavanaugh, all should motivate them.\u00a0 And if those issues motivate Republicans too, so be it.\u00a0 History shows that when Dems show up, they win.\u00a0 They would have in 2016 too, had the total negativity of the election not persuaded many to stay home.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t let today\u2019s negativity stop you.\u00a0 History is on the Democrat\u2019s side.<\/p>\n

Vote.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Anticipation Carly Simon playing in \u201cAnticipation\u201d in the background There seems to be a growing malaise among Democrats about the coming mid-term elections.\u00a0 We are told that the \u201cTrump Base\u201d is being energized by the lies the President is spouting:\u00a0 from the \u201cinvasion of the caravan\u201d to the \u201cDemocratic Mob (it\u2019s funny how those two … Continue reading “Anticipation”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nAnticipation : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2018\/10\/23\/anticipation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Anticipation : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Anticipation Carly Simon playing in \u201cAnticipation\u201d in the background There seems to be a growing malaise among Democrats about the coming mid-term elections.\u00a0 We are told that the \u201cTrump Base\u201d is being energized by the lies the President is spouting:\u00a0 from the \u201cinvasion of the caravan\u201d to the \u201cDemocratic Mob (it\u2019s funny how those two … Continue reading "Anticipation"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2018\/10\/23\/anticipation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Our America - 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