I\u2019m Marty Dahlman. I spent most of my career teaching government, and a lot of my spare time working on politics (from local to national campaigns). In this age of \u201cidentification\u201d, you can put my ideology in the Liberal column (I hate the new-speak \u201cProgressive\u201d) and politically in the Democratic party. Now you\u2019ve got me categorized, it might be time to \u201cturn me off\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0 That’s what we do in this new political world: \u201cturn off\u201d any ideas that might conflict with our own: ideas that might pierce our little bubble.<\/p>\n
But if you\u2019re still here, I\u2019d like to talk about the new world we live in: Trump-World.<\/p>\n
As a Democrat I closely identify with what President Obama said during the campaign: that in the near past, both candidates for president might disagree, but both were actually qualified for the job. Is Donald Trump qualified for the job he holds now? And if not, then what might happen to us all?<\/p>\n
Chaos Theory \u2013 the science of non-linear surprise events that are inter-connected and create unforeseen consequences.\u00a0\u00a0 Sounds like the first week of the Trump administration. From the travel ban (which sounds a lot like the promised \u201cMuslim ban\u201d) to the executive order to end the Affordable Care Act (more symbolic than real) to the now rumored executive order to \u201cinsure religious freedom\u201d (and deny civil rights to those whose lives don\u2019t pass the religious right\u2019s litmus tests); the Trump administration seems to bump from one chaotic moment to another. It\u2019s the same way the Trump campaign operated, and while it seems impossible, it\u2019s the strategy that won the White House. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s an accident, there is intent to the constant \u201cnew issue\u201d, the next \u201ctweet\u201d or pronouncement. And whether it\u2019s factual or actual, it doesn\u2019t even matter: it can be addressed by new \u201calternate facts\u201d or constant modification of what was said or meant.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a clear strategy \u2013 how many times can the New York Times say falsehood or dis-credited or even call a lie a lie, before we stop listening or stop believing anything. And when we do stop listening, the only \u201cfacts\u201d we will hear are those from the administration. Besides, a large minority (those that voted for Trump) already believe that \u201calternative facts\u201d are true, and aren\u2019t interested in hearing anything else.<\/p>\n
I\u2019d say it\u2019s time to take the camper and head up to Montana to hide out \u2013 wait, isn\u2019t that where the \u201cBreitbart\u201d guys are??<\/p>\n
So what happens next?<\/p>\n
Spheres of influence \u2013 like orbits of planets around a sun, the Trump administration has set up, intentionally or not, spheres of influence. And while from my ideologic\/political standpoint none of these guys comes close to representing me, there still may be some that are better than others.<\/p>\n
Clearly the first sphere of influence (over Presidential decisions) is the Bannon\/Flynn sphere. They have the President\u2019s ear now, and Bannon represents the current instigator of Chaos Theory in Politics.\u00a0\u00a0 The \u201cshock and awe\u201d of the past ten days is thanks to his influence. Certainly the removal of the Director of Intelligence and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Staff and their replacement by Bannon was a move to consolidate power. So to was the removal of the Presidential Daily Briefing authorship from Central Intelligence to the While House National Security office. As long as they hold sway, we can expect this constant drip of adrenalin and anxiety to continue (and the cheering of our \u201calt-right\u201d friends.<\/p>\n
The second sphere, and one that might offer some hope for a future that doesn\u2019t feel \u201con the brink\u201d at every tweet, is the \u201cold GOP\u201d sphere, represented by the Pence-Priebus-Ryan-McConnell constellation. They are the remainders of the conservative wing, with the same old tired conservative ideas of less government in business, more government in private lives, and let the rich get richer.<\/p>\n
They have their own agenda, and as Trump\u2019s administration moves to actually trying to pass legislation (as opposed to governing by executive order \u2013 say \u2013 isn\u2019t that what they were so angry at Obama for?) they will gain more influence over the President.<\/p>\n
The third sphere is the cabinet secretaries, particularly State, Defense and Homeland Security. General Mattis seems to be a consensus pick at Defense as does Kelly at Homeland Security, and while Tillerson doesn\u2019t come from a background that thrills an old liberal Democrat, he does seem to have an air of competence and leadership that feels steadier than the current direction. As this administration ages, it will be interesting to see if it matures through the counsel of these secretaries, or if their influence is ignored. If that happens, expect that these men will make an early exit from the fray.<\/p>\n
The fourth sphere is the Executive Branch of the United States. We\u2019ve already seen some stand up: the firing of acting Attorney General Sally Yates and ICE Director Daniel Ragsdale and the letter of dissent by the career State Department employees. These represent the top of the pyramid, but there are thousands (maybe millions) of employees, many of whom have a clear idea of what a \u201clawful\u201d order is. This could be the \u201cdark hole\u201d, a constant force that is unrecognized and unseen.<\/p>\n
And the final sphere: the Courts, with over eight hundred Obama appointees scattered throughout the country. They have been nurtured in an era of civil rights applying to all forms of human differences: they will not easily be persuaded to curtail those rights. And while a battle looms for the control of the Supreme Court (not this appointment as much as the next one); those judges stand as a counter-force to the loss of freedom and human dignity.<\/p>\n
This is the \u201cnight sky\u201d we see: all trying to gain influence over the actions of the nation. Whether there are \u201cwinners and losers\u201d, or much more complicated interactions among the forces: this is the \u201cchaos\u201d that represents the Trump Administration.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"