Glass Half Full<\/p>\n
The Democrat came within a couple of thousand votes of winning Ohio\u2019s 12th<\/sup>Congressional District last night.\u00a0 In an August special election to replace long time Republican Congressman Pat Tiberi, Democrat Danny O\u2019Connor was within a percent of Republican Troy Balderson.\u00a0 There\u2019s provisional ballots to count, and a potential recount, but in all likelihood Balderson will gain the seat, at least until November, when the two face off again.<\/p>\n The 12th<\/sup>has been a traditional Republican district for decades, the last Democrat to win was in 1980.\u00a0 And with re-districting in 2011, the 12th<\/sup>was even more \u201cRepublicanized.\u201d\u00a0 It contains rural counties:\u00a0 Morrow, Muskingum, and parts of Richland and Marion.\u00a0These are traditional farm and Republican strongholds, but while there\u2019s a lot of geography, that\u2019s not where the votes are.<\/p>\n The 12th<\/sup>also has the northern Columbus suburbs in Franklin County.\u00a0 It\u2019s hard to imagine that upscale residential suburbs of Worthington, Dublin and Westerville (as well as the northern residential areas within the city of Columbus) are now considered \u201cDemocrat;\u201d but O\u2019Connor\u2019s 65% vote margin shows it\u2019s true.<\/p>\n So it\u2019s the balance, between the rural and the urban\/suburban.\u00a0 And in between those two extremes are the \u201cexurbs,\u201d the tremendous residential neighborhoods that have grown beyond the Columbus outer-belt in the past forty years.\u00a0\u00a0 Southern Delaware County and Western Licking County make up those areas, and hold the current balance in electoral outcomes.<\/p>\n Delaware County, where President Trump came for a pep rally last Saturday, ran close to it\u2019s 55% Trump vote in 2016, with Baldeson getting almost 54%.\u00a0 But the upscale areas nearer Columbus ran more Democratic, raising the question of Trump\u2019s impact on white suburban women, the \u201csoccer moms.\u201d\u00a0 If O\u2019Connor made a dent in the Republican wall, it was there.<\/p>\n Where he didn\u2019t have an impact was in Western Licking County, my home.\u00a0 Like clockwork, Licking County gave the Republican 60% of the vote, the same numbers that the area has produced for decades. \u00a0The difference is that it is now much more populous, feeling the increasing Columbus growth pivoting to the east, and is another Republican bastion.<\/p>\n Things may be different in November in the 12th<\/sup>, when there is an election with more than one race on the ballot.\u00a0 A hotly contested gubernatorial race will head the ticket (Democrat Rich Cordray versus Republican Mike DeWine) and long serving Senator Sherrod Brown is up for re-election.\u00a0 Traditional wisdom would say that a November election would mean a greater turnout for Democrats; it wouldn\u2019t take much to tip the scale for O\u2019Connor.<\/p>\n But it will also take greater outreach to the outer suburbs, not necessarily to win Licking and Delaware counties, but to mitigate the losses.<\/p>\n That\u2019s the \u201cmicro\u201d version of this election.\u00a0 The \u201cmacro\u201d version is more encouraging:\u00a0 in a Congressional District that voted 11% for Trump in 2016, that Pat Tiberi won by 66% in the same year, and has had a Republican Congressman for thirty-five years: \u00a0a Democrat came within 1700 votes (out of 200,000) of crossing the finish line.\u00a0 If this district is \u201cin play,\u201d then the Republican Congress should put their \u201cblue wave\u201d life jackets on.<\/p>\n They\u2019re going to drown.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"