{"id":1086,"date":"2018-08-06T09:17:53","date_gmt":"2018-08-06T13:17:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=1086"},"modified":"2018-08-06T09:17:53","modified_gmt":"2018-08-06T13:17:53","slug":"ohios-12th","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2018\/08\/06\/ohios-12th\/","title":{"rendered":"Ohio&#8217;s 12th"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ohio\u2019s 12<sup>th<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>Tomorrow is election day, here in Ohio\u2019s 12<sup>th\u00a0<\/sup>Congressional District.\u00a0 Pat Tiberi, who represented the District from 2001 until this winter, chose to do what many \u201cmainstream\u201d Republican politicians found to be their best choice in the Trump era:\u00a0 he resigned from the House and went to make money in the private sector.<\/p>\n<p>While the 12<sup>th\u00a0<\/sup>District was redesigned after the 2010 census, it has always been Republican.\u00a0The 2010 redistricting, the result of a Republican computer driven gerrymander, made it an even more Republican seat.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s 12<sup>th\u00a0<\/sup>District goes from Mansfield in the north, down I-71 sixty miles to include a sliver of the city of Columbus (for those who know the city, it&#8217;s the east side of High Street from OSU, then both sides of High Street to Worthington.)\u00a0Then it includes the northern suburbs of Columbus including Dublin, Powell, Lewis Center, and Delaware County.<\/p>\n<p>The district then goes east over sixty miles, splitting the suburb of Gahanna, includes all of Licking County, and into the rural eastern part of Ohio, with parts of Muskingum and Perry County.\u00a0 The gerrymander diluted the Democratic areas of Columbus and the smaller urban areas of Newark and Zanesville, with the massively suburban northern Columbus area, and the rural areas of the east.<\/p>\n<p>For many years this was not a contested election.\u00a0 The Democrats would usually put a body on the ballot (and I would vote for them) but the reality was that Pat Tiberi, and before him John Kasich, were the overwhelming favorites.\u00a0 Tiberi won with over 66% of the vote in 2016; President Trump won by 11% over Clinton.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s not the case tomorrow.\u00a0 Tomorrow Republican Troy Balderson, a state representative from the Delaware area, is facing stiff opposition from Democrat Danny O\u2019Connor, the current Auditor in Franklin County (Columbus and Central Ohio.)\u00a0 Current polling shows Balderson ahead, 46% to 45%.<\/p>\n<p>Whatever the outcome of tomorrow\u2019s vote, the Republican party has already gotten the message.\u00a0They can no longer assume that the suburban vote is automatically \u201ctheirs.\u201d With Trump\u2019s numbers upside down with women, the \u201csoccer mom\u201d vote of suburban Worthington,\u00a0 Dublin, Olentangy and New Albany is up for grabs.\u00a0 And frankly, Trump\u2019s rally on Saturday and Pence\u2019s visit last Monday probably didn\u2019t help.<\/p>\n<p>The key to a Democratic victory tomorrow is turnout.\u00a0 The usual gripe:\u00a0 Democrats don\u2019t show up for mid-term elections.\u00a0 Ohio looks like a \u201cRed\u201d state at first glance:\u00a0 only one Democrat holds statewide office, and both houses of the state legislature have large Republican majorities.\u00a0 But the results of the past several Presidential elections show that with a full Democratic turnout, Ohio can be, at the least, \u201cpurple.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The higher the visibility of the race, the more likely Democrats will be motivated to go to the polls.\u00a0What would normally be a \u201creflex\u201d Republican district, now has the accelerant of a Presidential and Vice Presidential visit to drive Democrats out to vote.\u00a0 Republican Governor Kasich, who endorsed Balderson, suggests that the candidate didn\u2019t want the President to come in for that reason.\u00a0 That didn\u2019t stop the \u201cWrestlemania- like\u201d Trump rally from coming to town, to \u00a0Olentangy&#8217;s Orange High School, right in the heart of upper-middle class suburban Columbus.<\/p>\n<p>This election is only for four months.\u00a0 No matter the results tomorrow, there will be a re-run in November, when the same two candidates will face off again.\u00a0 But with the focus of the nation, and both political parties, squarely on Ohio now, the money has flowed. \u00a0The usual negative ads have been on television, with O\u2019Connor claiming Balderson will raise the retirement age and cut social security, and Balderson claiming O\u2019Connor is a Pelosi sycophant who will raise taxes and open the borders.<\/p>\n<p>From inside the district, it really doesn\u2019t feel like any of those claims have \u201cstuck.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Tomorrow then, ends up being a referendum on the President.\u00a0 The election is taking place in a District that overwhelmingly supported Trump in 2016.\u00a0 If Danny O\u2019Connor wins, it would be a huge upset; if he loses within a couple of points, it still will send a message.\u00a0 While the \u201cTrump voter\u201d may support Trump, that support doesn\u2019t extend to Republican candidates in a general election.<\/p>\n<p>Ohio\u2019s 12<sup>th\u00a0<\/sup>District will tell that tale tomorrow, and give all of us a better idea of what will happen in November.\u00a0 For those of us in the District, don\u2019t forget to go out and vote (even if you may vote differently than I would.)\u00a0 For the rest, we will know more on Wednesday.\u00a0 Stay tuned.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ohio\u2019s 12th Tomorrow is election day, here in Ohio\u2019s 12th\u00a0Congressional District.\u00a0 Pat Tiberi, who represented the District from 2001 until this winter, chose to do what many \u201cmainstream\u201d Republican politicians found to be their best choice in the Trump era:\u00a0 he resigned from the House and went to make money in the private sector. While &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2018\/08\/06\/ohios-12th\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Ohio&#8217;s 12th&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ohio&#039;s 12th : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2018\/08\/06\/ohios-12th\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ohio&#039;s 12th : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ohio\u2019s 12th Tomorrow is election day, here in Ohio\u2019s 12th\u00a0Congressional District.\u00a0 Pat Tiberi, who represented the District from 2001 until this winter, chose to do what many \u201cmainstream\u201d Republican politicians found to be their best choice in the Trump era:\u00a0 he resigned from the House and went to make money in the private sector. 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