{"id":1072,"date":"2018-07-31T06:16:21","date_gmt":"2018-07-31T10:16:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=1072"},"modified":"2018-07-31T06:16:21","modified_gmt":"2018-07-31T10:16:21","slug":"seeing-through-the-mud","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2018\/07\/31\/seeing-through-the-mud\/","title":{"rendered":"Seeing Through the Mud"},"content":{"rendered":"

Seeing through the Mud<\/p>\n

Yesterday, in a series of seemingly incoherent interviews, Trump attorney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani put forth the next defense of the President in the Russiagate saga. Giuliani dropped a bomb, stating that there was, or may have been, or was rumored to be (depending on the interview) a second meeting in Trump Tower before the meeting with the Russians on June 9th<\/sup>, 2016.\u00a0This was a planning session for the actual Russian encounter, with most of the same Trump principals:\u00a0 Don Jr., Kushner, Manafort, Gates and an unknown fifth. To many, Giuliani seems unhinged or demented, pulling theories and events out of thin air.\u00a0 He isn\u2019t.\u00a0\u00a0He is performing an important function for the Trump defense.<\/p>\n

Watching the Trump Administration deal with the growing Russia crisis, one thing has been consistent.\u00a0In the past they have denied, denied, denied; then admitted to some things; then finally, when the facts were obvious, say it happened but it didn\u2019t matter.\u00a0 The June 9th\u00a0<\/sup>meeting is the case in point:\u00a0 it never happened, then it kind of happened, then a letter was written about it misrepresenting what happened, then finally, the emails were released about it and claimed to be \u201cnothing.\u201d\u00a0 This strategy hasn\u2019t served them well.<\/p>\n

Giuliani is attempting a different tack:\u00a0 he\u2019s trying to get ahead of the story instead of constantly trying to catch-up.\u00a0 In all likelihood there was a \u201cplanning session\u201d before the June 9th<\/sup>meeting.\u00a0 The Trump lawyers think that information is going to come out, likely through Gates\u2019 statements in cooperation with the Mueller team.\u00a0Rather than be blindsided with a meeting highlighting the Trump Campaign seriousness about the Russian connection, they feel it would be better to get it out now than later.<\/p>\n

The Trump defense strategy shift is clear.\u00a0 Now instead of waiting for the trickle of bad news, they are the ones controlling the release, and getting the \u201cfirst draft\u201d of the story.\u00a0 Should the candidate, now President, end up being the \u201cunknown\u201d fifth man at the meeting the groundwork has already been laid:\u00a0 Giuliani\u2019s almost incoherent ramblings about not finding collusion in the Federal code creates the basis for the \u201cnext reality\u201d of Trump\u2019s personal involvement in the Russian meeting.<\/p>\n

The President from the outset of the crisis has stated over and over that there was no \u201ccollusion.\u201d\u00a0Now that it is obvious there was, his team is building a case to claim that \u201ccollusion\u201d isn\u2019t against the law, so even though the Trump team (having lied for almost two years) \u201ccolluded\u201d it doesn\u2019t matter.\u00a0 They have even gotten the \u201cstamp of approval\u201d from noted Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz.<\/p>\n

And for those who accept \u201ccollusion\u201d as the only definition for their actions, the Trump lawyers are probably correct.\u00a0 However, if what the Trump campaign did was a \u201cconspiracy to defraud the United States\u201d (a Mueller charge in multiple indictments) then Federal law has been violated.\u00a0 Giuliani muddying the terms is simply one more means of confusing the issue.<\/p>\n

The third prong of the Trump strategy is to argue that \u201ccollusion\u201d with foreigners is a common campaign practice.\u00a0 They draw an \u201capples to apples\u201d comparison with the Clinton campaign:\u00a0 Trump had his Russians, Clinton had her British former MI-6 Agent in Christopher Steele.\u00a0 If what he did was illegal, then so did she.\u00a0 This angle of the story is being pushed by Trump-friendly media, including the Washington Times<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

And on first glance it does sound persuasive.\u00a0 If Hillary did it, why shouldn\u2019t Trump?\u00a0 However, even conceding that the Clinton campaign used the Steele Dossier, a fact still not fully documented; this is not \u201capples to apples.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0 Christopher Steele was an independent contractor, working for another US contractor, Fusion GPS, who had been contracted by attorneys for the Clinton campaign to do opposition research.\u00a0 Steele was not an arm of any national intelligence service, nor was he operating for a rival nation.<\/p>\n

The most recent Mueller indictments have made it apparent what we all already knew: \u00a0the Russian government, through their intelligence services, were directly interfering in the 2016 election.\u00a0 The evidence is growing clear that the Trump campaign anticipated getting high-grade opposition information from the June 9th<\/sup>meeting, and were aware this information was coming from the Russian government.\u00a0 Trump said as much in a speech that week.\u00a0 That\u2019s a long way from Clinton reading the Steele reports (if her campaign did.)\u00a0It\u2019s not \u201capples to apples,\u201d it more like \u201capples to hot dogs:\u201d not much similarity.<\/p>\n

But suppose you give the Trump lawyers their comparison, allowing that both Trump and Clinton committed a crime.\u00a0 As many drivers pulled over for speeding have discovered:\u00a0 just because others were breaking the law too doesn\u2019t make you any less guilty.<\/p>\n

And finally, Giuliani is participating in the \u201cDemocratizing\u201d of the Mueller team, the \u201cseventeen angry Democrats\u201d investigating the President.\u00a0 If he can damage the creditability of the Mueller investigation, then he hopes to invalidate their outcomes.<\/p>\n

All of these machinations will have little bearing on the legal actions the Mueller investigation will take.\u00a0 Their arena is the Federal Courts, not Fox and Friends or CNN.\u00a0 And there are other lawyers on the Trump team who are better suited for that, including the newest addition, Emmet Flood, known for helping Bill Clinton in his impeachment trial.<\/p>\n

But Giuliani isn\u2019t worried about a case in Federal Court.\u00a0 He anticipates, probably correctly, that Mueller won\u2019t indict a serving American President.\u00a0 Mueller will take the traditional approach, producing a report for the House of Representatives outlining the actions of the President, and leaving it up to the House to determine if those actions reach the standards for impeachment.<\/p>\n

And, if the Democrats take control of the House as expected in November, it will be a Democratic Judiciary Committee Chairman who will make that determination.\u00a0 Should they impeach the President, a simple majority vote of the House, then the final outcome will be in control of the Senate.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s where Giuliani\u2019s strategy comes into play:\u00a0 to remove the President from office requires a two-thirds vote of the Senate.\u00a0 Even if Democrats should gain control, it would likely only be by a one or two vote margin, far from the sixty-seven required.\u00a0So Giuliani\u2019s long-term strategy is to muddy the issue so much, that a significant part of the American people, Trump\u2019s base, won\u2019t buy anything the Mueller investigation shows.\u00a0 That way, vulnerable Republican Senators can vote \u201cwith their constituents\u201d and against removing the President.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not demented, or addled.\u00a0 It\u2019s a realistic view of what could happen in the next year.\u00a0 The one thing the Giuliani depends on is that politicians will be politicians.<\/p>\n

In John F. Kennedy\u2019s book, Profiles in Courage, <\/em>one of the chapters is about Senator Edmund G. Ross of Kansas.\u00a0 Ross cast the deciding vote that prevented President Andrew Johnson from being removed.\u00a0 That vote went against his own Radical Republican faction, and cost him his Senate seat.\u00a0 It was a time in our history when a politician wasn\u2019t a politician.<\/p>\n

We may be arriving at that time again.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Seeing through the Mud Yesterday, in a series of seemingly incoherent interviews, Trump attorney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani put forth the next defense of the President in the Russiagate saga. Giuliani dropped a bomb, stating that there was, or may have been, or was rumored to be (depending on the interview) … Continue reading “Seeing Through the Mud”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nSeeing Through the Mud : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2018\/07\/31\/seeing-through-the-mud\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Seeing Through the Mud : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Seeing through the Mud Yesterday, in a series of seemingly incoherent interviews, Trump attorney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani put forth the next defense of the President in the Russiagate saga. 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